Sebastian Korda vs Gael Monfils Prediction, Stats, Form, H2H, 3/25/25

Our first preview from the ATP’s round of 16 of the Miami Open comes from Sebastian Korda vs Gael Monfils.

Monfils’ win probability is only 43.5%, while Korda is favoured to win at 1.67 odds. The handicap is two games and the total games line is 23.

Jon Reid’s Korda vs Monfils prediction is for Korda to avenge the close loss against Monfils in Indian Wells.

Sebastian Korda vs Gael Monfils Prediction: Korda with Great Chance to Avenge Indian Wells Defeat

• Prediction: Korda to win & Korda -2 Games
• Best Odds: 1.69 & 2.04
• Bookmaker: SX Betting Exchange & Pinnacle
• Stakes: 4/10 & 2/10

Odds as at 2:45 am UK Time on March 25th, 2025. Odds may now differ.

As we try to end this putrid run of form and finally put some wins on the board, I’ll turn to a strong American with a well-rounded game that very well could have won this very matchup earlier this month in California.

I still do not believe that Monfils is playing as well as some have made his form out to be. I’ll go over why below, but the level just seems to be a tick lower than it was down in Australia, when it genuinely did look like he had turned back the clock.

The first serve will always work well, and his incredible defending, ball retrieval and shotmaking skills are never in question, but it’s the long stretches of passive play that lead him into long points, close games, close sets and, as a result, close matches.

That’s all well and good, but in his late 30s, Monfils can ill afford to be playing three set match after three set match, especially when he tends to make them as physical as he does. Even with a day off between matches, that’s going to catch up to him.

That’s also exactly what he’s done this week, with back-to-back-to-back deciding sets required to reach this point.

Sebastian Korda Recent Form

For a guy that is as talented as Korda is, he too has played far too many close sets and matches in recent times. An incredible backhand, a big enough serve (though it could be better for his height) and very few holes to his game makes it puzzling that he hasn’t won far more than he has on the main tour.

Yes, the injury history has been rough and that has played a part, but so too has the (often overused as an excuse) mental game.

We saw it last round, when Korda failed to close the first set with a break lead (he needed a tiebreak to get the job done) and then giving back one of the two breaks he had again in the second set.

I do think the fact he’s spent less time on court than Monfils is going to be a big advantage in this rematch and his game is strong enough to make him a contender to go all the way here, in what has become a shattered bracket with upsets abound.

Gael Monfils Recent Form

I alluded to the trio of deciding sets Monfils has had to play so far this tournament already and that is an indication of a few things. First, his opponents have all been competitive, which bodes well for Korda and helps alleviate the concerns that Monfils runs away with things. It’s still within the realm of possibility, but the likelihood of it happening can reasonably be reduced in one’s handicap.

Secondly, it also means he should be starting to feel his legs at some point in this match. Fabian Marozsan fell apart late in the third set against him (when he was a large favourite), Jiri Lehecka had so many opportunities when playing on the front foot and blew easy forehands and simple volleys down the stretch losing in a third set tiebreak and Jaume Munar served for the match in the third set, with that one also ending in a deciding set race to seven.

The way Monfils is winning such close sets and matches is simply unsustainable and variance is going to catch up with him, leading to him missing a ball here or there in big moments.

One last thing to consider? Monfils was spotted at his wife’s match on Monday. Why might that matter? Well, Elina Svitolina was the last match on Stadium Court against Iga Swiatek and he was there until 10:30-11:00 pm. This match is first up on that very court at noon on Tuesday. Feels like something that could potentially come into play. Not something worth basing an entire handicap on, but certainly worth keeping in the back of one’s mind.

Sebastian Korda vs Gael Monfils H2H – Stat of the Match

The only times these two played was the last tournament they played, when Monfils managed to sneak out a win in two tiebreaks, with Korda probably having the upper hand earlier in both sets before struggling at the business end of each one.

With Monfils likely to be feeling all the tennis he’s played this week at some point in this one, Korda should be able to level the score against the lovable Frenchman.

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