Sebastian Korda vs Arthur Cazaux Prediction, Stats, Form, H2H, 12/30/24

We’ll start the new week by previewing Sebastian Korda vs Arthur Cazaux from the ATP’s Brisbane International.

Cazaux’s win probability sits at about 50%, after opening around 40%, while Korda is favoured to win at 1.83 odds. The handicap is 1.5 games and the total games line is 22.5.

Jon Reid’s Korda vs Cazaux prediction is for Korda to win.

Sebastian Korda vs Arthur Cazaux Prediction: Original Price Point on Korda was the Right One

• Prediction: Korda to win
• Best Odds: 1.83
• Bookmaker: Unibet
• Stakes: 2/10

Odds as at 1:00 am UK Time on December 30th, 2024. Odds may now differ.

I really wanted to avoid betting a matchup with two guys that can see their level inexplicably disappear at any given moment, but with the price on Korda to win going from the 1.60-1.65 region all the way to where we have it now, I can no longer pass here.

For starters, though they can both look really poor at times relative to their best level, Korda doesn’t have those really poor, sloppy matches nearly as often. Then there’s the fact that he’s far more established at this level of the sport and has all the tools to be among the best in men’s tennis.

Matchup wise, he’s a bit less error prone and most importantly, he has a big advantage on the backhand side that should serve him very well in those exchanges.

I’m not sure why the market is in love with Cazaux in this matchup. I understand he did fairly well during this stretch last season, but his recent play didn’t inspire much and he’s playing a pretty strong opponent to open his 2025 season.

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Sebastian Korda Recent Form

It’s hard to parse the world No. 22’s results, with how hot and cold he can be. What separates the good from the great in this sport is the consistent, week-in, week-out ability to make deep runs and Korda epitomises that.

There’s not much doubt with regards to his abilities, but making just one quarterfinal in 10 tournaments post-Australia last year simply isn’t good enough.

What makes it even more frustrating for his fans is that he then turned around and looked great in Den Bosch and London on grass, won Washington and went deep at the Masters event in Montreal.

The one concern here is that we haven’t seen him since the Australian Open. That may be why some have been choosing to bet Cazaux here, with the rust a potential concern, but I don’t know if it’s enough to justify making Cazaux nearly as likely to win this match as Korda.

Arthur Cazaux Recent Form

As much as Korda’s inability to consistently play at a level we know he’s capable of can frustrate, Cazaux takes that concept to a whole other level.

Armed with a very strong serve, nice forehand and aggressive mindset, it was perplexing to see Cazaux struggle as much as he did in 2024. After announcing himself to the tennis world by reaching the second week and final 16 at the Australian Open after having won a Challenger in New Caledonia, he struggled mightily for the rest of 2024. That’s not a month or so of struggles – he was out in qualifying, the first round or the second round of the next 17 tournaments he played!

He finally snapped that skid with a Challenger quarterfinal in Thailand against a fairly weak field and went on to make another two quarterfinal or better runs in Asia on that lower circuit, but his performances were far from inspiring.

As much as some may favour him because of Korda’s lack of play in the final months of the 2024 season, it’s not as though Cazaux did much himself when playing. He had a nice win against Ben Shelton in Paris, but even that came as a lucky loser after he was sent packing in qualifying by…an ageing Fabio Fognini.

I understand the desire to oppose Korda and the potential rust, but the market has gone too far here and I think there are more suitable candidates to oppose Korda with later on in the draw if that’s what you fancy.

Sebastian Korda vs Arthur Cazaux H2H – Stat of the Match

Perhaps the head-to-head series explains a bit more of the love for Cazaux. He has the lone win against Korda. That, however, came three years ago (hard to put much weight in a result from that long ago) and on a different surface (clay in Madrid).

Finally, that match was also decided by a singular break of serve. I’m not going to overreact to that result.

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