Thanasi Kokkinakis vs Dominic Thiem Prediction, Expert Picks, Odds, H2H, 4/23/24

It’s a big few months of tennis ahead, with a few ATP & WTA combined events in Madrid and Rome leading into the year’s second major at Roland Garros in Paris. Let’s look at Thanasi Kokkinakis vs Dominic Thiem in a qualifying match on Tuesday.

Thiem’s win probability is only 36.6% while Kokkinakis is favored to win at 1.47 odds. The handicap is three games and the total game line is 22.5.

Our Kokkinakis vs Thiem prediction is for Kokkinakis to cover the game handicap.

Kokkinakis vs Thiem Prediction: Kokkinakis Slightly Undervalued Even As Favourite Against Struggling Austrian

• Prediction: Kokkinakis -3 Games
• Best Odds: 1.96
• Bookmaker: Pinnacle
• Stakes: 4/10

Odds as at 12:30 am UK Time on April 23rd, 2024. Odds may now differ.

It’s no secret that Thiem is far from playing his best tennis at the moment, with a slew of losses pointing towards his struggles potentially being more serious than a few months of poor play.

Physical issues have been popping up for him a bit too consistently and he recently talked about how his wrist has been causing him problems of late, but that he was going to try and play through them.

Doing that against a powerful player like Kokkinakis isn’t exactly the best situation to be in for someone struggling as much as him. The Aussie’s game can work at altitude on clay and with the pace he hits with, a wrist that isn’t at 100% could make this an obstacle tough to overcome.

More previews from this week’s Mutua Madrid Open are up on the expert insights page.

Thanasi Kokkinakis Recent Form

Though he’s not known as a clay courter by trade, Kokkinakis has had moderate amounts of success in recent years down on the Challenger circuit and there are several factors at play here that make me like him to claim a main draw spot.

For starters, his opponent is down on his luck. He’s not just losing, but often losing by a margin.

Second, this – much like the green clay he won a tournament on a few weeks ago to book his spot in the French Open main draw – is played in quicker conditions where his booming first serve is more of an advantage than it would be in Rome or Paris.

Finally, while Kokkinakis often struggles on quicker courts when it comes to the return of serve, clay courts in recent times have helped in that regard, giving him a touch more time to reach his spots and get his next shot set up.

This wager is primarily betting against Thiem, I won’t deny that. I do think I’m getting a pretty competent player to do it with though, who has proven himself in recent weeks with his play on quicker clay courts (including avenging a loss last week against Gregoire Barrere in the opening round of qualifying).

Dominic Thiem Recent Form

Thiem’s record in 2024 isn’t pretty. The former elite clay court talent has seen injuries derail his career and really affect his effectiveness on clay. Heavy topspin, power, the one-handed backhand. What used to be someone who could challenge the best players in the game on the surface, is now a shell of himself and struggling to get by even on the lower Challenger Tour.

He’s admitted to playing through some discomfort, the form is horrible and his groundstrokes are much less intimidating than they once were.

Other than reputation, there is very little reason to like him in this spot. His first-round opponent in the qualifying draw hadn’t played much lately and had only had success this season in a watered-down Challenger field, and Thiem has far too many lopsided losses to ignore this year.

He’ll surely have the crowd support as tennis fans love Thiem and would surely welcome a return to prominence, but there’s not enough for me to justify him being just a three-game underdog.

Thanasi Kokkinakis vs Dominic Thiem H2H – Stat of the Match

No prior meetings between these two, but if I told you just two years ago that Kokkinakis would have a better clay court blended elo rating than Dominic Thiem, I’d expect you would call me foolish. Well, that’s the case today, indicating that Thiem isn’t just losing because of the competition he’s been playing, but that he’s firmly entrenched in the mediocre range these days – even on his best surface.

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