Karen Khachanov vs Thiago Seyboth Wild Prediction, Picks, Odds, H2H, 10/23/24

Our first preview for Wednesday comes from the ATP 500 Erste Bank Open. Karen Khachanov vs Thiago Seyboth Wild is showing some value, as Khachanov looks to keep the good times rolling.

Seyboth Wild’s win probability is under 40%, while Khachanov is favored to win at 1.54 odds. The handicap is 2.5 games and the total games line is 23.

Jon Reid’s Khachanov vs Seyboth Wild prediction is for Khachanov to cover the games handicap.

Karen Khachanov vs Thiago Seyboth Wild Prediction: Back Another Undervalued Favourite in Austrian Capital

• Prediction: Khachanov -2.5 Games
• Best Odds: 1.93
• Bookmaker: Pinnacle
• Stakes: 3/10

Odds updated at 12:15 am UK Time on October 23rd, 2024.

Backing the 2.5-game favorites worked beautifully on Tuesday, so why not start Wednesday off doing the same thing? In all seriousness, I do believe we’ve found another favorite with a handicap on the wrong side of three games.

The only issue with this compared to Tuesday’s matches in Vienna is that Khachanov came from Kazakhstan last week, where he won a much-needed title. With the Wednesday start, however, I’m slightly less concerned. Even if we penalize him by a half-game on the handicap, I still can’t get past this needing to be at least -3.

If you want to go with a 2/10 staking and are a bit concerned about the travel spot, that’s fine as well. I just don’t think this is the right matchup to oppose him in. He played a series of strong servers in altitude last week and looked more than okay on return, he’s not playing a hard court natural and he’s got the talent edge with an extra day’s rest. Perhaps an opportunity presents itself to bet against Khachanov as he racks up more tennis in his legs and the market starts to overvalue him, but this isn’t it for me.

More tennis previews can be found on the expert insights page.

Karen Khachanov Recent Form

The form is about as strong as it could be for the No. 24. He picked up 250 points and four much-needed victories last week in Almaty. He didn’t have the easiest path for a 250 either. Now, those fields are always going to be weaker relatively speaking, but Otto Virtanen is a big server and takes big swings from the baseline, Beibit Zhukayev can fire down strong first serves, Aleksandar Vukic is a quick court specialist with a strong serve and forehand combination and Gabriel Diallo is a player to watch in 2025 with a huge serve and forehand combination as well.

Finding success against them as the week went on was impressive, and Khachanov did so in the thinner air which only helps big servers that much more.

Now he takes on the most manageable serve he’ll have played in a few weeks in Seyboth Wild and though the courts are fairly quick, he’s playing much closer to sea level. I don’t have too many concerns about his ability on return. Perhaps fatigue plays a role here, but from what I’ve seen in the last week, there is no reason for this handicap to be 2.5 games and I’ll look to exploit that mistake.

Thiago Seyboth Wild Recent Form

The one-time clay court specialist has looked much more competent on the hard courts in the last few weeks. He’s won five matches indoors between Antwerp qualifying, the opening round in Belgium, and qualifying in Vienna.

Now, obviously no one of Khachanov’s caliber was beaten along the way, but the progression for the 24-year-old is there to those that watch this sport avidly.

Even in Shanghai in quicker conditions, he pushed Daniil Medvedev to 5-5 in each set. Now, Medvedev hated the balls there and he still didn’t cover a 2.5 or 3.5 game spread.

The Stefanos Tsitsipas loss could be seen as a step forward, but it could also be seen as uninspiring with how poor Tsitsipas has been on hard courts for a while now.

I do think he’s been better than he once was on this surface, but the market has gotten a little carried away with how much they’re upgrading him heading into this tilt.

Karen Khachanov vs Thiago Seyboth Wild H2H – Stat of the Match

Khacharov won the first meeting between these two back in March in Indian Wells. It was a fairly comprehensive win, but it’s worth noting that it’ll be a tad tougher to find opportunities on return at this tournament.

On the flip side, those conditions were probably more conducive to success for Seyboth Wild and he still struggled to do much.

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