Karen Khachanov vs Alexei Popyrin Prediction, Picks, Odds, H2H, 10/31/24

We’re onto Thursday at the Rolex Paris Masters. Eight matches are on tap, with the round of 16 playing out from the Accor Arena. Let’s look more into Karen Khachanov vs Alexei Poyrin.

Popyrin’s win probability is 43%, and Khachanov is the favorite at 1.62 odds. The handicap is 1.5 games, and the total games line is 23.5.

Jon Reid’s Khachanov vs Popyrin prediction is for Popyrin to win.

Karen Khachanov vs Alexei Popyrin Prediction: Finally Time to Oppose Khachanov

• Prediction: Popyrin to win
• Best Odds: 2.30
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stakes: 4/10

Odds updated at 12:00 am UK Time on October 31st, 2024. 

Well, why now? For a few reasons. First, he’s added more time on the court in his legs. No days at these single week Masters events also make it tougher for him to continue this form. The other reason is that potentially tired legs affect one’s serve and their ability to return big serves.

We saw Khachanov outlast Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard on Wednesday, but the Frenchman also had a long week, winning the ATP 500 tournament in Basel. Popyrin should be much fresher heading in.

As for Popyrin, he can be streaky, but he has a huge game and has taken a step forward this year. He’s also proven he can beat some of the big names. He beat Novak Djokovic at the U.S. Open, took out Matteo Berrettini and Daniil Medvedev this week, and has wins against Andrey Rublev, Ben Shelton, Hubert Hurkacz, and Grigor Dimitrov on hard courts since the summer.

I’m happy to back him here. Not only is he well suited to exploit potential fatigue for Khachanov, but he’s also likely going to be competitive if – somehow – the Russian isn’t feeling the effects of three straight weeks of tennis.

More tennis previews can be found on the expert insights page.

Karen Khachanov Recent Form

We’ve documented Khachanov’s form several times in the last few weeks. The title in Almaty, the final in Vienna, now a pair of long, three-set wins in Paris.

All in all, he’s played 11 matches in 14 days with travel from Kazakhstan to Vienna to Paris.

That is going to take its toll eventually, one has to think. A 12th match in 15 days, with nearly 4.5 hours on the court in the last two days may be the final straw.

There’s no doubting his form or game, but he has been pushed a lot in the last two days as a favorite, and I would expect much of the same against what I would describe as the most well-rounded player he’s come up against this week.

Alexei Popyrin Recent Form

With an explosive game and a long way to go to refine it to be a contender week-in, week-out, it’s no surprise that Popyrin has been fairly volatile results-wise this summer and fall hard court season.

He came out of nowhere to win the Montreal Masters in August, went out in the first round in Cincinnati, and then made the second week in New York at the year’s final major.

After making the trek over to Asia, Popyrin went out in the first, third, and first rounds in Tokyo, Shanghai, and Vienna respectively.

Now he’s into the third round in Paris with a pair of really tough wins. It’s hard to parse his form, but he’s beaten really good players this year fairly regularly, is at home on hard courts and in fairly quick conditions, and is getting a potentially tired opponent.

Karen Khachanov vs Alexei Popyrin H2H – Stat of the Match

Khachanov leads 3-1 against Popyrin, but it’s worth noting that two of those three wins came in third-set tiebreaks (essentially coin-flip-type matches). Popyrin has proven himself to be a tough matchup for Khachanov.

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