Karen Khachanov vs Brandon Nakashima Prediction, Picks, Odds, H2H, 10/24/24

Our second preview of the day comes from the friendly confines of the ATP’s Erste Bank Open in Vienna. It’s been our go-to tournament for the value this week for the most part and as we look at Karen Khachanov vs Brandon Nakashima, it’s no different on Thursday!

Nakashima’s win probability is 46%, with Khachanov favored to win at 1.75 odds. The handicap is one game and the total game line is 23.5.

For more daily tennis tips, visit the bettingexpert community, but if you want more expert tips from Jon Reid, visit our Expert Insights section.

Jon Reid’s Khachanov vs Nakashima prediction is for Khachanov to win.

Karen Khachanov vs Brandon Nakashima Prediction: Keep Trusting In Form Khachanov

• Prediction: Khachanov to win
• Best Odds: 1.75
• Bookmaker: Pinnacle
• Stakes: 4/10

Odds updated at 1:00 am UK Time on October 24th, 2024. 

Once more getting Khachanov at what I’d consider a very cheap price, I’m happy to get involved on back-to-back days. He hasn’t looked tired after his title run in Kazakhstan last week (and why would he? He didn’t need more than 2.5 hours in any of his four matches in Almaty) and I like the matchup for him here.

Nakashima is someone who has struggled in the past to beat guys that can hit big, powerful groundstrokes as he tends to get pushed back behind the baseline and can’t play the front-foot tennis he prefers.

Then there’s the fact that he’s been very strong on serve, but is far from unbreakable and is playing a guy who has been just fine on return against much bigger servers in altitude.

Finally, as much as some may be concerned about Khachanov and fatigue (despite four fairly quick matches last week, a quick match on Wednesday, and several days off to rest up), it may be Nakashima who is the bigger concern in that regard.

The 23-year-old has played 90 matches this year and his opening round match came against his countryman Tommy Paul who is coming off a title and looked much more tired and underpowered in their match on Wednesday.

Karen Khachanov Recent Form

Went over the overall form of the world No. 24 in yesterday’s preview. He lifted the trophy in Almaty last week, and though it was only a 250-level tournament, he faced some pretty decent competition in terms of players who like quick conditions.

He picked up where he left off against Thiago Seyboth Wild in a fairly routine win in the opening round, though the youngster did finally pressure his serve later on in that match (to no avail).

I’m happy to back Khachanov against a slightly better opponent since this time around I don’t have to give up a head start games-wise (though I don’t mind taking the -1 instead if you like to play odds closer to 1.90). He has a decent matchup edge here and should be a larger favorite.

After his return to the top 25 with the win a week ago, he can jump another few spots with a few more wins this week.

Brandon Nakashima Recent Form

As nice as his win against the clearly-fatigued and somewhat underpowered on the day Paul, Nakashima has had some form concerns late this season.

His number of matches played was circled by many in the tennis betting community as a potential reason for a three-match losing streak against Ugo Humbert, Yosuke Watanuki, and Stanislas Wawrinka (you can find a preview of his match on Thursday on the expert insights page) that didn’t see him win a set.

All of those guys are quality competitors, but things only get tougher on Thursday. Khachanov has the power that all those guys possess and he’s a far more established entity on the men’s circuit. I’m not sure why he’s barely a favorite in this spot, but I’ll take it!

Karen Khachanov vs Brandon Nakashima H2H – Stat of the Match

This is the first meeting between the two.

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