Karen Khachanov vs Hamad Medjedovic Prediction, Stats, Form, H2H, 2/12/25

After previewing one of the best matches of the day Tuesday between one established player and an up-and-coming young gun, we do the same in this piece. Let’s break down Karen Khachanov vs Hamad Medjedovic from the ATP’s Open 13 Provence in Marseille.

Medjedovic’s win probability is 45%, while Khachanov is favoured to win at 1.75 odds. The handicap is one game and the total games line is 23.

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Jon Reid’s Khachanov vs Medjedovic prediction is for Khachanov to win.

Karen Khachanov vs Hamad Medjedovic Prediction: Promising Youngster Not Yet Almost Khachanov’s Equal

• Prediction: Khachanov to win
• Best Odds: 1.75
• Bookmaker: Pinnacle
• Stakes: 3/10

Odds as at 3:00 am UK Time on February 12th, 2025. Odds may now differ.

Hard to believe that a young player that just broke into the top-100 is being shown this much respect, with the market backing him all the way into 2.19 odds.

I’ve been championing Medjedovic for a while now and he does have talent that makes his potential that of a top-25 player, but there are still plenty of issues with his game that need sorting.

His serve and forehand are really strong weapons, but his backhand could be more solid, his movement is certainly among the bottom 20% of players in the top-100 and his tendency to shrug his shoulders and give up when things aren’t going his way are all concerns for me.

I know Khachanov hasn’t played since Australia, but he’s far more established, has plenty of power in his own right and is the much more physically fit player who covers the court much more proficiently.

That also means if Medjedovic does end up being competitive and this goes three sets, I trust the veteran who has proven to be the more physically sound player far more often in a deciding set that would start after an hour or two on court.

I’m nowhere close to having this as a 55-45 encounter just yet so Khachanov will be back to get the job done in conditions fairly favourable to his game.

Karen Khachanov Recent Form

We haven’t seen much of Khachanov this year, but he did have a solid end to his 2024 season. A loss from a set and break up against Kei Nishikori and a straight sets loss to Alex Michelsen in Melbourne are somewhat concerning, but they both employ a game style grounded in consistency and utilising very strong backhands to grind opponents down.

With Khachanov a bit more leaky from that side and not able to outlast those types of players or hit through them as effectively, it can be tough for him if he’s not hitting his spots.

Luckily for him, as much as it’ll be a tougher task on returning in this match, he faces no such disadvantage in backhand exchanges and should be able to hit through Medjedovic simply working the ball side-to-side from the baseline.

This hasn’t been the start Khachanov would’ve hoped for to 2025, but this is a winnable match for him.

Hamad Medjedovic Recent Form

Credit to Medjedovic for making a tough choice and avoiding the Australian summer of tennis in order to finally crack the world’s top-100 – something he’d been expected to do for a while.

That choice paid dividends as he remained in Europe and played a pair of Challenger tournaments in Portugal, winning one and making the quarterfinals of the other to secure that long-awaited ranking milestone.

Thing is, because the better Challenger players were down under trying to qualify for the year’s first major, it’s hard to really give him all that much credit for the wins he managed to rack up.

I was more impressed with his end to his 2024 campaign, reaching the final of an ATP tournament on home soil in Belgrade. Or his victory from 2-6 down against Holger Rune a few weeks ago representing Serbia against Denmark at Davis Cup.

He’ll need a strong serving day to have a chance at defeating the world No. 21. The conditions should help a bit, but the concerns I have against this level of competition and from the baseline are enough to have me opposing him in this contest.

Karen Khachanov vs Hamad Medjedovic H2H – Stat of the Match

This is the first time Medjedovic has taken on Khachanov and it’s certainly one of the tougher tests the 21-year-old has had. He did have the aforementioned win against Holger Rune at Davis Cup a few weeks back. Can he pull off another upset of a top player?

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