Karen Khachanov vs Pablo Carreno Busta Prediction, Picks, Odds, H2H, 10/29/24

Our second preview from the Rolex Paris Masters comes from Karen Khachanov vs Pablo Carreno Busta. Can Khachanov keep his hot streak on the ATP Tour going?

Carreno Busta’s win probability is just above 25%, while Khachanov is favored to win at 1.31 odds. The handicap is 3.5 games and the total games line is 22.

Jon Reid’s Khachanov vs Carreno Busta prediction is for Khachanov to cover the handicap.

Karen Khachanov vs Pablo Carreno Busta Prediction

• Prediction: Khachanov -3.5 Games & Khachanov -4 Games
• Best Odds: 1.84 & 2.13
• Bookmaker: Pinnacle
• Stakes: 2/10 & 2/10

Odds updated at 1:15 am UK Time on October 29th, 2024. 

There is no doubt that at some point Khachanov will slow down after all the tennis he’s played in the last two weeks. Perhaps it’s in this match. I don’t think that now is the time to oppose him though, and I don’t even think passing on this handicap is wise.

Carreno Busta looked pretty good in Winston-Salem, but other than that, he hasn’t looked nearly as good as he once was since returning to the tour. His last three sets have been lopsided in his opposition’s favor and neither of those opponents was of the same level on hard courts as Khachanov.

The return game from Khachanov has also looked good enough to believe he too could post a lopsided set score or two.

More tennis previews can be found on the expert insights page.

Karen Khachanov Recent Form

Khachanov’s form isn’t the issue here. He won a tournament in Almaty and then reached another final in Vienna. That fortnight allowed him to pull his ranking back to No. 21 and set him up to return to the top-15 during the Australian summer.

The only concern here is the potential for fatigue. He matches up with a subpar and far-from-his-peak Carreno Busta fairly well, he’s playing of late and he hasn’t suffered a bad loss in quite a while.

If he can hold up physically, he should be able to pick up at least one more win during this hot streak.

Pablo Carreno Busta Recent Form

After a slow start upon his return to the main circuit back at the French Open, it appeared as though the 33-year-old was on the rise.

Since picking up a few wins in Cincinnati and reaching the semis in Winston-Salem, he hasn’t been nearly as good. It’s worth noting he did retire in that semifinal tilt against Alex Michelsen, and perhaps is feeling the effects of something physical again.

Losing by five games to Botic van de Zandschulp is a pretty poor result in 2024, but losing by seven games to Thiago Seyboth Wild shortly after that is a major cause for concern.

If he’s not fit here, he could very well be sent to the showers fairly swiftly.

Karen Khachanov vs Pablo Carreno Busta H2H – Stat of the Match

These two have a long history of playing one another. Khachanov leads 6-4, but they haven’t played since the 2022 U.S. Open.

Obviously Carreno Busta is far from the player he was a few years ago, so I’m not sure how relevant any of their head-to-head matches are at this point.

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