Karen Khachanov vs Roberto Carballes Baena Prediction, Stats, Form, H2H, September 26

Our second preview for the day looks ahead to a match coming up from the ATP 500 China Open.

It’s a stacked field and with double the prize money on offer relative to Tokyo, it’s no surprise to see most of the big names on tour playing this tournament (and with next week’s tournament in Shanghai, it’s also a bit less travel).

Let’s look at Karen Khachanov vs Roberto Carballes Baena in a first round tilt.

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Our Khachanov vs Carballes Baena prediction is for Khachanov to cover the handicap.

Karen Khachanov vs Roberto Carballes Baena Prediction: Buy Low on struggling player

• Prediction: Khachanov -3.5 Games
• Best Odds: 1.85
• Bookmaker: Pinnacle
• Stakes: 6/10

Odds as at 12:30 am UK Time on September 26th, 2024. Odds may now differ.

It’s no secret that Khachanov isn’t playing his best tennis of late, or that his opponent in this one at times looks like a fish out of water when dealing with pace on hard courts.

In fact, even in the slightly slower conditions in Beijing (I’m not convinced it’s as slow as some make it out to be after watching some of the qualifying matches), Carballes Baena was only able to reach the main draw thanks to a withdrawal that opened up a spot for a lucky loser.

He was downed by Pavel Kotov in three sets in the final round of qualifying action the other night.

Khachanov hasn’t inspired and is certainly far from the player we saw reach a few hard court grand slam semifinals not all that long ago, but he’s leagues ahead of Carballes Baena in talent, firepower and comfort on this surface.

I’ll go over a bit why the form doesn’t bother me all that much next.

Karen Khachanov Recent Form

Any of you who read my articles day-in, day-out know I’m a big proponent of context. A win streak can boost a player’s confidence and help them find rhythm, but if the wins are racked up against pretty weak competition it can lead to overreactions.

Similarly, when players struggle, we have to look at how they lost and who they lost to before we put in a lazy bet to oppose them.

For me, I think the market making Khachanov a 3.5 or four game favourite is going a bit overboard here. I don’t think he’s playing an opponent that should trouble him and his losses of late have come to those who aren’t bothered with big hitting and aggressive matches from the baseline.

Matteo Arnaldi got him in Montreal for instance. He covers the court really well and can rip the ball with the best of them when the unforced errors aren’t flowing from his racquet. Even then, the match was a very close 7-5, 7-5 to the Italian.

His lopsided losses in the summer? To Alexander Zverev – a top-5 player this season – and Seongchan Hong (this one was bad, but it was months ago and appears to be an outlier more than anything).

Another defeat came at the hands of Dan Evans. That was a hard-fought contest and Evans needed the longest match in U.S. Open history to send him packing.

Even the most recent loss came against Bu Yunchaokete in three sets, who managed to translate his Challenger success from the summer into an impressive run in Hangzhou.

My point is, he certainly hasn’t been bad enough to be downgraded this much and I’m happy to take a big swing backing him here. If he can’t find breaks of serve and cover this handicap, I’ll likely stop betting on him for the rest of the 2024 season. I don’t think that’ll happen though.

Roberto Carballes Baena Recent Form

The Spaniard is a surprising 4-3 in his last seven matches on hard courts, but once again the devil lies in the details. He’s beaten a clay courter from the Challenger circuit in five sets in New York, another clay courter in Corentin Moutet and then a Challenger player and local wild card in qualifying draws.

His losses include being swatted away by Juncheng Shang and Zhizhen Zhang, while losing a closer one in three sets to Kotov.

The underpowered journeyman is going to be in tough both trying to find break chances in Khachanov service games and keeping him out of his own.

The likelihood for a straight sets loss is high and the possibility for a lopsided set to be involved going in Khachanov’s favour is also higher than it normally would be on a hard court in men’s tennis.

Karen Khachanov vs Roberto Carballes Baena H2H – Stat of the Match

Carballes Baena has the lone win in this matchup. It came on a clay court where he’s far more likely to be competitive and more importantly, it happened 10 years ago.

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