Cirstea a Tough Nut to Crack: Madison Keys vs Sorana Cirstea Prediction, Expert Picks, Odds, H2H and News for 5/13/24

Madison Keys and Sorana Cirstea have reached the Round of 16 at the Italian Open in Rome, and a quarterfinal appearance awaits the winner of their match on Monday. Ej’s Keys vs Cirstea prediction at +141 Odds can be found below.

After a run to the semifinal in Madrid, Keys has already been challenged in both of her matches in Rome and Ej expects Cirstea to give her another good battle. Cirstea easily dismantled both of her opponents at this WTA-1000 Internazionali d’Italia event, and she has a win on clay over Keys in hopes of a similar result on Monday.

Madison Keys is only competing in her fifth tournament of the season due to a shoulder injury, as she seeks her first tournament win on clay since 2019 in Charleston.

Get more of EJ’s tennis picks on Expert Insights. 

KEYS VS CIRSTEA PREDICTION: KEYS TRIES TO SHOULDER THE LOAD

• Prediction: Match Total Over 2.5 Sets
• Best Odds: +141 (2.41)
• Bookmaker: Pinnacle
• Stakes: 3/10

Odds as of 7:00 am UK Time May 13, 2024. Odds may now differ.

Madison Keys was off the court for the first two months of the 2024 WTA campaign with a shoulder injury, and it has limited her to only five events this year. Keys’ season started with a 3-set win over Haliry Baptiste at Indian Wells, and then she was quickly bounced by Putintseva in straight sets.

The clay season didn’t start well for Keys, as she was heavily favored against Jaqueline Cristian at Charleston only to fall in three sets. Keys won the first set of that match and then the wheels fell off despite serving 8 aces.

Madison has dropped a set to each of her first two opponents in Rome, although she earned first-set wins against Osorio and Haddad-Maia. Keys needed 3 sets to get past Jabeur and Gauff in Madrid before losing straight sets to Swiatek in Spain.

Sorana only needed two sets to get past favored Marketa Vondrousova, and the +220 underdog prevailed with 3 breaks in the opening set that went to a tie-break. Cirstea always has success against Vondrousova, and she knows what it takes to beat Madison Keys.

Cirstea took down Keys as an underdog on clay in 2019, and she was well on her way to beating her again at Indian Wells last season. After a 6 – 1 first set, Keys couldn’t finish the match and Cirstea advanced at Indian Wells in their 2023 clash. 

Confidence is a big part of any player’s success, and I like that Sorana knows she can beat Keys on Monday. Cirstea is an underdog again. but that won’t stop me from thinking she can take a set from Keys in this round 4 affair in Rome.

I see this match going the distance, and you can call me crazy but Cirstea might just pull off the upset over Keys at +135 in three sets. You heard it here! (Oh, that price is +405 for a 2 – 1 correct sets score, by the way) My Keys vs Cirstea prediction is for the match to see at least 3 sets. 

MADISON KEYS RECENT FORM

Madison Keys is 6 – 2 on clay in 2024, although her record on this surface since 2019 translates to 18 wins with 14 losses.

Keys came up with two big wins in Madrid over Coco Gauff and Ons Jabeur before falling to Iga Swiatek in the semis.

SORANA CIRSTEA RECENT FORM

Sorana Cirstea struggled in Madrid, as she needed three sets to get past Alex Eala before getting smashed out of the event by Swiatek.

Cirstea has two clay titles to her credit in her career, the last coming in the 2023 Reus Challenger event in Spain. Sorana took Istanbul in 2021. 

KEYS VS CIRSTEA HTH –  STAT OF THE MATCH:

Keys and Cirstea have met twice on the WTA Tour, the last meeting at Indian Wells in 2023. 

Keys lost the first set of that match and then left the court, and Cirstea won their first battle on clay back in 2019 at the Madrid Open, 2 sets to 1. 

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