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Horse Racing Thursday Tennis Best Bet: ATP Newport, Kevin Anderson vs Ugo Humbert
Kevin Anderson vs Ugo Humbert Best Bet: Thursday, July 20th
The men’s matches in Newport have been an absolute drain on the bankroll, as Corentin Moutet has yet another mental meltdown on court, handing John Isner an easy, comfortable win on Wednesday.
For Thursday, we’ll stick with Newport and see how another good player can find a way to lose to an ageing, one-dimensional server as we take a look at the match between Ugo Humbert and Kevin Anderson.
In this article:
Kevin Anderson vs Ugo Humbert Preview
Thu, July 20th, 20:00 (UK Time)
When you have the chance to oppose one of these serve-oriented players in their late 30s and potentially lose for a third straight day, you have to take it.
In all seriousness though, after beating Gabriel Diallo, I elected to pass on opposing Anderson on Wednesday when he played Gijs Brouwer. The big man from the Netherlands hasn’t traditionally had the best record on grass and is typically found down on the Challenger Tour. Combined with the fact that he was a small favourite or pick ‘em depending on the book made it easier to let that one pass.
Thursday, however, I’m back to betting against the big man from South Africa in his return week.
There are a few reasons I’m happy to do so.
For starters, Humbert is by far the most established player that Anderson will have played to this point in Newport. As a tour regular and someone who has won in the past on grass, Humbert won’t be uncomfortable on Thursday.
Secondly, matchup wise, he’s a better fit than backing someone like Diallo or Brouwer. Where they were both rushed by Anderson’s ability to fire their power back at them with interest, Humbert is accustomed to taking the ball on the rise and likes faster courts where there isn’t as much time to react.
He’s also someone that hits flat and can generate angles when hitting his lefty forehand cross court to the Anderson backhand. That’s key, simply because Anderson has been able to fire backhands to the over side of the court well this week when he’s had time to set his feet. Making him hit those shots on the run helped neutralise that.
Finally, he’s decent at net, not afraid to come in and has the lefty serve out wide when serving on the ad side. That combination is precisely what allowed Brouwer to save the vast majority of break points he faced against Anderson.
The Frenchman also looked strong against Steve Johnson on Wednesday. When he did struggle, it was primarily the strong Johnson chip and slice game that troubled him, when the ball barely bounced off the grass. That shouldn’t be an issue here, as Anderson doesn’t really have that kind of variety in his repertoire.
Kevin Anderson vs Ugo Humbert Best Bet
The final aspect of this match that should be impacting the price more than it has? The same thing mentioned in Wednesday’s preview.
The potential fatigue here should certainly be a consideration. While Isner wasn’t troubled by it – and assisted by Moutet’s breakdowns – Anderson is now playing his third match in three days, and doing so against his toughest opponent yet.
Further, after a strong first set Wednesday, Brouwer was able to find far more points won against the Anderson first serve in the second set. It appeared as though he was finally going to find the break of serve in the second, but he couldn’t convert and ultimately dropped the tiebreak. After over a year away from the game in a professional capacity, one has to think that Anderson’s legs will tire at some point. That point appeared to be the second set in his second-round match. I expect Humbert to be the beneficiary of that on Thursday afternoon.
- Selection: Humbert to win
- Best Odds: 1.68 (Pinnacle)
- Stakes: 4/10
Odds as at 3:00 am UK Time on July 20th, 2023. Odds may now differ.
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