Kei Nishikori vs Marin Cilic Prediction, Stats, Form, H2H, September 26

Our first preview of the day on Thursday comes from the ATP 500 Japan Open. It’s a matchup of two wily veterans who are very familiar with each other’s games. Let’s delve into Kei Nishikori vs Marin Cilic.

Cilic’s win probability is a respectable 42%, while Nishikori is favoured on home soil to win at 1.65 odds. The handicap is two games and the total games line is 22.5.

Our Nishikori vs Cilic prediction is for Nishikori to come through.

Kei Nishikori vs Marin Cilic Prediction: Time to Oppose Cilic Coming Off a Long Week

• Prediction: Nishikori to win & Nishikori -2 Games
• Best Odds: 1.65 & 1.93
• Bookmaker: Pinnacle
• Stakes: 4/10 & 3/10

Odds as at 12:30 am UK Time on September 26th, 2024. Odds may now differ.

It was a great week for Cilic in Hangzhou, who made his return to the main tour by winning the trophy in China. He was good to us as well, as we found some success betting his matches, whether backing him or looking at other angles like tiebreaks and overs.

The question now becomes can he back it up in Japan. If we look at the positives for Cilic, these courts play fairly quickly. That could help him find more holds of serve against a tough returner and keep points shorter, thus helping him conserve energy.

The downside, however, is obvious. He is 36 years old and though the rust may be gone, has he built up the stamina to the point that he can play five matches one week and turn around and continue the strong form?

Nishikori is tough to attack as well. He’s rock solid from the baseline, deals with pace superbly and doesn’t have a groundstroke one can target and rush into making mistakes (he has one of the better backhands we’ve seen in a while).

Nishikori has also done very well here before, winning this tournament on two occasions. The quick courts help his game play up and seem more powerful, while his counterpunching of his opponent’s pace is more effective as well.

He’s also someone who tends to return well regardless of how fast the conditions are. He has great hand-eye coordination and where poor returners struggle as conditions get faster (like Cilic), Nishikori can still find ways to win points and apply pressure.

I think this is a great spot to fade the Croatian off a title against someone who is more than capable of giving him fits right off the bat in the Japanese capital.

You can find more tennis previews on the expert insights page.

Kei Nishikori Recent Form

After a fairly slow start coming back from injury, Nishikori has looked strong this summer when we’ve seen him take the court.

He managed to reach the quarterfinals at the Masters event in Montreal, with a few nice wins against the emerging Alex Michelsen and then Stefanos Tsitsipas.

He then played a pair of clay court Challenger tournaments, going 4-1 with one withdrawal and a loss to a strong tour level clay court player in Jaume Munar – and even then, he led 6-2.

Chengdu didn’t go to plan for the 34-year-old and now world No. 200, but a 4-6, 4-6 loss to Juncheng Shang was nothing to be concerned about since the teenager went on to win the title in front of his home crowd.

With a decent serve, excellent backhand, solid forehand and incredible solidity from the baseline, Nishikori has always played a “high floor” kind of game. That’s to say his style is less volatile and you know you’re always going to get a certain level of quality from him when he’s fit.

If he can stick to a plan that includes getting points started on return, serving solidly and trying to pin Cilic in his backhand corner where he should dominate the crosscourt exchanges, I think Nishikori very well could find himself winning in straight sets.

Either way, with Cilic coming off a long week and struggling somewhat on return in Hangzhou, I have this handicap much closer to -3 or -3.5 (think an asian handicap of -3.25) than the current -2.

I wouldn’t fault you for selling games and trying to obtain higher odds as well.

Marin Cilic Recent Form

Coming off a title, I’m not going to make the case that Cilic’s form is a concern. In fact, last week I made the case that the losses at the Challenger level weren’t a concern, since he played well in one loss and the worse loss of the two looked like an outlier more than anything.

I was ahead of the market on Cilic in Hangzhou, but I feel as though in an effort to catch and give him credit for such strong play, the market has overreacted a bit.

He has a tough opponent who can make him grind in even the quicker conditions and the bigger concern is the fact that he’s coming off five matches in a week, travelling to Tokyo from Hangzhou and it’s not like every match last week was quick and easy.

His quarterfinal went nearly three hours, the semi was well over an hour and a half and the final was a bit longer than the semi.

His total time on court in that three day span was almost 6.5 hours. To me, that is enough time on court for me to be slightly concerned about his ability to back up that title.

Kei Nishikori vs Marin Cilic H2H – Stat of the Match

These two are well acquainted with one another. The two veterans have clashed 15 times over the years, with Nishikori leading 9-6.

Once again though, context is key and neither of these guys is near the player they were about 10 years ago when Cilic beat Nishikori in the U.S. Open final – a final absolutely no one expected.

Nevertheless, some love their head-to-head stats as a handicapping tool. If we look just at the matches played on hard courts, Nishikori leads 7-5.

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