Miomir Kecmanovic vs Chris O’Connell Prediction, Picks, Odds, H2H, 11/4/24

Our second match preview of Monday also comes from the ATP’s Belgrade Open, as we look at Miomir Kecmanovic vs Chris O’Connell.

O’Connell’s win probability is about 35%, with Kecmanovic entering as the heavy favorite at 1.43 odds. The handicap is three games and the total games line is 22.5.

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Jon Reid’s Kecmanovic vs O’Connell prediction is for O’Connell to win.

Miomir Kecmanovic vs Chris O’Connell Prediction: O’Connell Disrespected Yet Again in Late Season Indoor Tournament

• Prediction: O’Connell to win
• Best Odds: 2.85
• Bookmaker: Unibet
• Stakes: 3/10

Odds updated at 12:00 am UK Time on November 4th, 2024. 

With Kecmanovic’s game so volatile being someone that hits into small targets and often misses, it’s hard to rely on him to win 66% of the time – as he would have to in order to make this a breakeven proposition betting on him.

He’s also won back-to-back matches just once since Wimbledon (in Stockholm where the second of the two wins required a third-set tiebreak), while O’Connell’s struggles have come in close matches against some pretty strong hard-court opponents.

This is one I have chalked up as a close match more often than not, so I’m happy to take the 3.00 odds on offer on the Aussie.

Miomir Kecmanovic Recent Form

The lack of back-to-back wins is concerning in its own right, but losses in recent months to Nuno Borges, Yoshihito Nishioka, Marcos Giron and Denis Shapovalov also implies that Kecmanovic is more than capable of losing to those he shouldn’t be losing to.

In other words, it’s tough to trust him as a favorite, much less a big favorite.

The game is fine, as I think his serve is decent and he can generate from the baseline. He simply doesn’t play with enough margin and his unwillingness to come to net means he has to really hit his spots and hope rallies don’t extend so one of his shots doesn’t miss.

If he was more willing to come in, he could follow those shots into the outer thirds into the forecourt and put away the subsequent ball at the net.

Once he learns to do that, I’ll oppose him a bit less. Until then, he makes too many matches even contests.

Chris O’Connell Recent Form

The Aussie has also struggled of late, having lost six of his last seven matches, but the key is that he’s rarely been blown away.

Losses to the red-hot Karen Khachanov and upstart Jacob Fearnley have each come in close three-setters, his defeat at the hands of big-serving Matteo Berrettini came in a pair of closely contested tiebreaks (one of which he led 5-1) and losses to Lorenzo Musetti and Alejandro Davidovich Fokina – both quality opponents – also required a deciding set.

The wins aren’t there, but he’s been incredibly competitive against opponents as good or better than Kecmanovic.

His game plays in the conditions and at the very least, I’d expect him to give us a good sweat on this high-odds ticket!

Miomir Kecmanovic vs Chris O’Connell H2H – Stats of the Match

Perhaps this is what is influencing the market to make Kecmanovic the heavy favorite. He won the only prior match between these two in Adelaide on a hard court nearly two years ago. That was a 6-4, 6-4 affair though, so even that match wasn’t lopsided.

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