Miomir Kecmanovic vs Aleksandar Kovacevic Prediction, Stats, Form, H2H, 3/19/25

Our second ATP preview of the day from the Miami Open looks more at Miomir Kecmanovic vs Aleksandar Kovacevic.

Kovacevic’s win probability is only 36.5%, while Kecmanovic is favoured to win at 1.44 odds. The handicap is 2.5 games and the total games line is 22.5.

For more daily tennis tips, visit the bettingexpert community, but if you want more expert tips from Jon Reid, visit our Expert Insights section.

Jon Reid’s  Kecmanovic vs Kovacevic prediction is for Kovacevic to win.

Miomir Kecmanovic vs Aleksandar Kovacevic Prediction: In Form American Undervalued on Quicker Courts

• Prediction: Kovacevic to win
• Best Odds: 2.75
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stakes: 2/10

Odds as at 2:15 am UK Time on March 19th, 2025. Odds may now differ.

I’ve never been particularly high on either of these players, but as we shift from the slower desert conditions of Indian Wells to the warmer climate of Miami and the court speeds pick up as well, I’m happy to back him at this price.

For starters, I don’t think Kecmanovic plays a style conducive to dominating matches. He isn’t the fastest or fittest player out there that can just win wars of attrition, he’s not super consistent and he doesn’t possess overwhelming power. He can strike the ball cleanly, but it’s rare for him to blow his opposition off the court.

Kovacevic also has holes in his game, with a one-handed backhand that isn’t particularly impressive, but there’s no denying what he can do with his first serve and his forehand.

He’s entering this tournament with a nice run in the Dominican Republic under his belt and with these courts even more likely to reward his serve, I’m happy to back him at what I consider a big price.

Miomir Kecmanovic Recent Form

Kecamanovic has pushed his ranking into the top-50 thanks to a few strong 250 tournaments this year. The Delray Beach title in particular felt a bit fortunate though and since that tournament, Kecmanovic is just 1-3 with losses to players like Daniel Altmaier and Damir Dzumhur making it tough to believe that being a big favourite against an in form player with firepower is justified.

He’s added a bit more margin for error to his baseline game this year, but a few of the other underlying problems are still there. He’s just a solid player that doesn’t do anything very well.

That’s going to make him competitive in most matches, but also means he’s going to struggle to create separation from opponents within matches as well.

That type of player is what I like to call a “dog or pass” kind of guy. When an underdog, his tendency to play good players tough tends to present value in backing him, but his rather plain game becomes one to oppose when he’s priced up as a strong favourite, as we’re seeing in this instance.

Aleksandar Kovacevic Recent Form

Though I want to doubt Kovacevic and still think his backhand needs to improve and his defending and consistency could use some work, I have to say that he continued to prove me wrong.

He’s already picked up two Challenger trophies this year – including last week’s Challenger 175 in Cap Cana – and made a main tour final all the way from qualifying, losing only in a third set tiebreak against Felix Auger Aliassime.

If his backhand continues to hold up the way it did in the final two rounds a week ago, then I wouldn’t be surprised if Kovacevic doesn’t just win this match, but also wins a few more in what is a pretty weak section of the draw.

Miomir Kecmanovic vs Aleksandar Kovacevic H2H – Stat of the Match

Kovacevic actually won the lone meeting against Kecmanovic, but that was all the way back in 2022. The tournament in Seoul doesn’t even exist on the ATP calendar anymore. It’s nice to know that he has beaten Kecmanovic, but a match from that long ago shouldn’t really be too decisive a factor in one’s handicap.

Safer Gambling

At bettingexpert, we always take a safe approach to gambling. We’ll never bet more than we can afford or chase losses. For more advice, head to our Safer Gambling hub.