Karolina Muchova vs Sorana Cirstea, H2H - 2/20/25

The day’s final match will bring Karolina Muchova and Sorana Cristea together to wrap up the quarterfinals at the Dubai Championships. Only eight ladies remain in the hunt for the title in an event full of surprises and upsets.

Muchova was almost a victim of one of those upsets yesterday against McCartney Kessler, but a wild three-set affair ended with the Czech Republic at this stage.

Sorana Cirstea has been a provider of upsets in this WTA1000 event, and none were bigger than the convincing win over Jasmine Paolini in the third round.

EJ Garr’s prediction for Karolina Muchova vs. Sorana Cirstea features even-money odd, which you can find below.

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Karolina Muchova vs Sorana Cirstea WTA Dubai Championships Prediction: Dog Will Hunt

• Prediction: Sorana Cirstea +4.5 Games
• Best Odds: +100
• Bookmaker: Pinnacle
• Stakes: 3/10

Odds as of 7:00 am UK Time on February 20, 2025. Odds may now differ.

We’re all a little stunned at what progressed on Wednesday in Dubai.

Seven underdogs from 12 matches yesterday defied the odds, and one of those efforts came from Sorana Cirstea. Cirstea was a +395 underdog in the first round against Daria Kasatkina, and the wildcard entrant swept the 10-seed out of the event.

The Romanian native was a slight underdog against Alycia Parks, and then we get to what happened yesterday. Cirstea was listed at +220 against Emma Navarro, and it was arguably the best match in this event. 

Cirstea won the first set in a tie-break, and Navarro responded with a 6 – 3 second frame to force the issue. Serving up 5 – 4 in the third set, Navarro broke Cirstea to bring it to 5 – 5, but the American was broken to give the Romanian another chance to serve it out. Cirstea was broken again, and the final frame went to another tie-break before Cirstea moved on.

Muchova slammed eight aces against McCartney Kessler but only put 51% of her first serves in play. Kessler won the game count, 15 – 14, which was nice because we had the American +4.5 handicap yesterday! Raducanu outdid Muchova with the point count but couldn’t win a set against the 17th-ranked Czech Republic native.

Underdogs have been doing magical things over the last two events, and we have another chance to bark with Cirstea. I’ll take the +4.5 games and pocket those in case we see another upset in Dubai!

KAROLINA MUCHOVA RECENT FORM

Karolina Muchova escaped with some luck, and the last two outings couldn’t have ended with losses. Muchova was down 4 – 2 to Kessler in the third set after mounting a comeback to find victory. Raducanu won more game points than Muchova despite the straight-sets loss, and Muchova is strongly favored again today.

At -400, Muchova should easily defeat Cirstea because she is ranked 17th and playing against someone close to 100th. Cirstea is one of a few players feeling good about their game at the right time, and no one can explain where the momentum came from.

Muchova isn’t peaking, to say the least, but she is doing enough to progress in close matches. 

SORANA CIRSTEA RECENT FORM

Cirstea ended 2024 0 – 6 from Rome to Wimbledon and finished an ugly 12 – 16 campaign last season.

It’s been a year since Cirstea has pieced together a 3-win streak, and she did that right here last season with a trip to the semifinal.

MUCHOVA VS CIRSTEA HTH –  STAT OF THE MATCH

Muchova is 4 – 1 in 5 meetings with Cirstea. 

Their first encounter was at the 2020 US Open, and Muchova earned a straight-sets win over the Romanian.

Muchova and Cirstea met 4 times in 202,3, and the first clash was here in Dubai in a match Muchova won in straight sets. Cirstea won the meeting in Miami, and Muchova earned wins at Montreal and the US Open of that season.

The winner of this match will face Clara Tauson or Linda Noskova in the semifinals of the Dubai Tennis Championships.

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