Jessica Pegula vs Ekaterina Alexandrova Prediction, Odds, Stats, Form, H2H, 3/27/24
Our second preview of the day also comes from the WTA side of the Miami Open. It comes from the Pegula vs Alexandrova match at Miami Open, as the American looks to use the home crowd’s support to help her surge into the semifinals. Alexandrova’s win probability is only 40% while Pegula is favored to win at 1.60 odds. The handicap is 2.5 games and the total games line is 22.
Tennis expert Jon Reid has his Pegula vs Alexandrova prediction at 1.91 odds in the article below.
Pegula vs Alexandrova Prediction: American Well Suited to Deal with Alexandrova Power
- Prediction: Pegula -2.5 Games
- Best Odds: 1.91
- Bookmaker: Pinnacle
- Stakes: 4/10
Odds as at 2:00 am UK Time on March 27th, 2024. Odds may now differ.
Coming off a career-best win against Iga Swiatek, you may think I’m crazy to oppose Alexandrova in this spot.
There are a few reasons I’m comfortable doing just that though. Firstly, I don’t want to fall victim to recency bias. Sure, any win against the world No. 1 is impressive, but the Russian does fit the profile of the type of player that can trouble Swiatek. Secondly, other than that match, she’s struggled to put together more than a set or two where her power is consistently effective and not spraying errors. That kind of inconsistency over a larger sample size makes it more difficult to trust she can replicate that round of 16 performance in the quarterfinals.
Finally, she goes from taking on a player who doesn’t like dealing with pace and isn’t the strongest when under pressure, to a more defensive player who is one of the best counterpunchers in women’s tennis. Our Pegula vs Alexandrova prediction is for Pegula to cover the -2.5 games handicap.
Check out the expert insights section for more tennis previews from Miami on Wednesday!
Jessica Pegula Recent Form
Is this run ever a welcome one for the fifth-ranked player in the world or what?
We had been left wondering what on earth was going on with Pegula to start her season, after her withdrawal in Adelaide before the semis, early exit at the Australian Open in ugly fashion, and being bounced from Indian Wells in her first match.
Now, she still has a few semifinals this season, but with what we’re used to seeing from her, the early exits were certainly head-scratchers.
Now she appears to be back on track. She beat two tough counterpunchers who move well and have terrific rally tolerance (much like herself) in Leylah Fernandez and Emma Navarro in the last few rounds and overcame a slow start to beat a deteriorating Lin Zhu via retirement in her first match.
Now she takes on a flat hitter with lots of power for a spot in the semis. Here’s the thing, that’s not a daunting task for Pegula. She’s just fine dealing with pace, redirecting it well, and having the defensive abilities and consistency needed to elicit errors from the more error-prone hitters. Alexandrova fits that bill.
Plus, as strong as Alexandrova’s baseline game is, her second serve is often vulnerable and if you’re not right up on the baseline, her first serve isn’t overwhelming either. That means we should see Pegula able to generate pressure with semi-regularity on return.
Her serve isn’t the strongest either, but it’s also not floated in by any means and she’s the much better spot server of the two, which should help her keep those serves out of the firing line.
Ekaterina Alexandrova Recent Form
I outlined Pegula’s struggles to start her 2024 campaign (or at least relative struggles), and this season has been a topsy-turvy one for Alexandrova as well.
On the one hand, she’s into the quarterfinals here with a win over the world No. 1, reached a semifinal in a strong Adelaide draw, and made the final at the 500 in Linz, Austria.
Yet she’s also had patches in many of her wins where she’s looked downright bad, has lacked real signature wins other than Swiatek and an Elena Rybakina that was clearly looking ahead to the Australian Open, and has lost some ugly one to consistent baseliners this year, despite the fact that they aren’t anywhere near her caliber of player.
Her hitting from the baseline can’t be questioned. The sustainability of said hitting and her backup plan if the hitting goes awry? Those are certainly weaknesses that deserve some critique.
With a serve that could be under fire and far more likely to see the error count rise, I can see Alexandrova having a tough time with Pegula, as she did with the likes of Magdalena Frech, Yulia Putintseva, and even Julia Riera earlier this campaign.
Jessica Pegula vs Ekaterina Alexandrova H2H – Stat of the Match
Pegula won the lone matchup these two have played, but it’s not one that bears much relevance, considering it was on clay and happened three years ago. These conditions should be much more to Alexandrova’s liking.
That said, the elo ratings here have Pegula as a sizable favorite. Now, those who like Alexandrova in this one may point to form this year (though I don’t think she’s been any better relative to expectations than Pegula has if we’re being honest), and that may be valid. Perhaps the market is pricing that in. I’d then counter with the fact that Pegula has the matchup advantage and that should offset any form edge that goes in Alexandrova’s favor.
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