Jelena Ostapenko vs Jasmine Paolini Prediction, Picks, Odds, H2H, Stats - 2/12/25

Jelena Ostapenko will face Jasmine Paolini in the third round of the Qatar Open on Wednesday in Doha, and the Italian native is favored to be a quarterfinalist.

At odds reaching -200, Paolini is expected to reach her first quarterfinal at this WTA1000 event in Doha, but Ostapenko has been at this stage.

Ostapenko finally won back-to-back outings for the first time since Wimbledon last season, and the Latvian’s confidence is showing this week in Qatar.

For more expert tennis predictions, visit Expert Insights!

Jelena Ostapenko vs Jasmine Paolini WTA Qatar Open Prediction

• Prediction: Jasmine Paolini -2.5 Games
• Best Odds: -115
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stakes: 3/10

Odds as of 7:00 am UK Time on February 12, 2025. Odds may now differ.

Jelena Ostapenko was a finalist in her first appearance at the 2016 Qatar Open and has reached the semifinals once since (2022). This is the fifth third-round appearance for the Latvian native in Doha, and she finally won back-to-back outings for the first time in quite a while.

We discussed some of this yesterday for the Samsonova clash in the second round. Ostapenko has never lost a first-round match in Doha and hasn’t won two straight outings since Wimbledon last season, spanning 10 tournament entries.

Ostapenko came through for us with flying colors, ousting Samsonova from this WTA1000 event, and now the stakes are a little higher.

Jasmine Paolini may have a fun, loving smile and a great personality, but when it’s time to turn on the game face, the Italian has proven she can handle the pressure. Last season was a stupid year for Jasmine, and I mean that in such a good way!

Keeping that pace and now being the target instead of the underdog brings a different mindset to the show. Jasmine has handled it thus far, and the Italian will prove to be too much for Ostapenko while covering the -2.5 games en route to the win.

The -200 odds on Paolini are well out of my comfort range, and I knew we would only be dealing with a couple of games to cover the spread. We might see three sets, and the line setters point to that possibility, but Jasmine will cover regardless.

JELENA OSTAPENKO RECENT FORM

Jelena Ostapenko has won two consecutive matches in Doha, and it is the first time with multiple victories since Wimbledon last season. Spanning 10 tournament entries, Ostapenko has gained some confidence in Doha, and no one can explain why.

Certain players just enjoy a venue and link it to their success, but the Latvian native is about to run out of luck.

Ostapenko ended last season with a 1 – 6 record and is 3 – 4 in 2025 to begin the season.

JASMINE PAOLINI RECENT FORM

Jasmine Paolini ranks 4th on the WTA Tou,r, and the Italian native is playing in her third Qatar Open. Paolini was 0 – 2 here before the pair of wins this week in Doha and is now favored to be a quarterfinalist.

Paolini is 5 – 2 this season and is following up a 42 – 21 campaign in 2024.

OSTAPENKO VS PAOLINI HTH –  STAT OF THE MATCH

Ostapenko and Paolini met in the first round of the 2023 US Open, and Ostapenko won the match in three sets.

The winner of this match will face Ons Jabeur or Sofia Kenin in the quarterfinals of the Qatar Open. I will have a preview and prediction posted for that third-round match today.

SAFER GAMBLING

At bettingexpert, we always take a safe approach to gambling. We’ll never bet more than we can afford or chase losses. For more advice, head to our Safer Gambling hub.