Jelena Ostapenko vs Iga Swiatek Prediction, Picks, Odds, H2H, Stats - 2/14/25

We have arrived at the Qatar Open semifinals, and Jelena Ostapenko and Iga Swiatek will face off in the first of two final four clashes in Doha. 

With a rare chance to win four consecutive tournaments in Doha, Iga Swiatek brings a 15-match win streak at the Qatar Open into the semifinals and is heavily favored to be a finalist… Again!

With odds at -350 for the Polska native to reach the final, Swiatek faces a Latvian opponent who has dominated the World’s #2 with four wins in four meetings! 

EJ Garr’s prediction for Jelena Ostapenko vs Iga Swiatek features odds at 

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Jelena Ostapenko vs Iga Swiatek WTA Qatar Open Prediction: Latvian Not Afraid of the Stage

• Prediction: Jelena Ostapenko +5 Games
• Best Odds: -115
• Bookmaker: Pinnacle
• Stakes: 3/10

Odds as of 7:00 am UK Time on February 14, 2025. Odds may now differ.

How many people can say they have never lost to Iga Swiatek and have dominated the Polska native every time they’ve met? That list is so short, and we all know it.

Ostapenko has never been intimidated by Iga Swiatek, and I don’t see why the Latvian native would be scared to face her again. With four wins against Swiatek and no losses to be found, Ostapenko being given no chance by the oddsmakers means nothing because no one is shocked by it.

I think -350 is a little obnoxious, but all that does is put more games in my pocket on the handicap with the Latvian who enjoys this venue herself.

Iga Swiatek is the last remaining seeded player at this WTA1000 event, and upsets in this event have been fruitful. Feel free to read my Alexandrova +150 prediction if you need more proof of underdogs in this event.

Jelena Ostapenko couldn’t possibly beat Iga Swiatek today, right? No chance, no way, and who could fathom such a thing? I was hoping Ons Jabeur would have forced a third set against the Latvian, but Ostapenko wasn’t having any of that in the quarterfinals.

With Ostapenko’s four wins against Swiatek, the number four is on the World’s #2 mind as she chases a fourth straight trophy in Doha. Swiatek has won her last 15 outings in Doha and has the rare chance of winning an event in four consecutive campaigns.

With -115 odds on the +5 games with Ostapenko, let’s hope we get another strong outing from the underdog against Swiatek.

JELENA OSTAPENKO RECENT FORM

Jelena Ostapenko reached the finals in her first appearance at Doha in 2016 and reached the semifinals in Doha from the 2022 entry.

Ostapenko is only 5 – 4 in 2025, and four wins have happened in Doha this week alone.

The Latvian native went 31 – 19 last season, completing a fourth straight year with a winning record on the WTA Tour.

IGA SWIATEK RECENT FORM

Iga Swiatek was unseeded in the 2020 Qatar Open and lost in the second round against Svetlana Kuznetsova. The retired former World’s #2 reached the semifinal of that year’s event, and Aryna Sabalenka won the tournament.

Swiatek has won the last 15 matches in Doha after skipping the 2021 event. The Polska native plans on a fourth consecutive trophy at the Qatar Open as a strong favorite against her Latvian opponent, who has never lost to Swiatek.

Swiatek is 12 – 2 in 2025 and is following up a 6in 4 – 9 2024 campaign with five tournament titles. 

OSTAPENKO VS SWIATEK HTH –  STAT OF THE MATCH

4 – 0! Ostapenko is 4 – 0 in four meetings with Iga Swiatek and has never lost to the Polska native.

Their first meeting was on the grass of Birmingham during the 2019 campaign, and Ostapenko wiped the floor with Swiatek in straight sets.

After wins at Indian Wells in 2021 and Dubai in 2022, Ostapenko defeated Swiatek in the round of 16 at the 2023 US Open in three sets.

The winner of this match will advance to the finals and face Ekaterina Alexandrova or 

I will have a preview and prediction for that semifinal at the Qatar Open on the site today.

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