Jasmine Paolini vs Tatjana Maria Prediction, Stats, Form, H2H, March 8th 2024

Another WTA match that has some promise from a betting perspective is Jasmine Paolini vs Tatjana Maria. I’m going to go back to the well here, as I simply don’t believe that the BNP Paribas Open suits the veteran Maria’s game at all. Have a look at the article below for our Paolini vs Maria prediction from our tennis expert Jon Reid.

Maria’s win probability is only 30.8% while Paolini is favoured to win at 1.38 odds. The handicap is four games and the total games line is 20.5.

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Jasmine Paolini vs Tatjana Maria Prediction: Maria’s Luck to Run Out on Friday

• Prediction: Paolini -4 Games & -4.5 Games
• Best Odds: 1.86 & 2.05
• Bookmaker: Pinnacle
• Stakes: 3/10 & 2/10

Odds as of 3:15 am UK Time on March 8th, 2024. Odds may now differ.

I am still in disbelief that Arantxa Rus lost our last bet opposing Maria. Make no mistake, it wasn’t some peak performance from the veteran German. It was a series of shanked overheads, double faults and netting easy groundstrokes sitting on a plate for Rus.

Now against a player who can generate a bit more, is much more talented and has a better hard-court pedigree, I’ll go back to the well to oppose Maria. Her game is simply too attackable and she leaves far too many balls sitting up in the forecourt.

I’m going to create a hybrid -4.25 game handicap here as well, splitting my total stakes between the -4 and -4.5 handicaps.

I’m sticking with the handicaps as well because it presents much more value to me than opposing Maria who is only expected to win 30% of the time in this match. We’ll look at it more in a second. Still, when players can work out their game, they tend to steamroll her, and her game is predicated more on frustrating players and keeping them out of rhythm, rather than any aggressive tennis that can come back at any time.

Jasmine Paolini Recent Form

It’s been a career season already for the 28-year-old Italian who brings incredible energy to the court every time she plays.

First, she reached a grand slam second week for the first time in Australia. She then went on to claim her second-ever title and by far the biggest she’s managed to take down just a few weeks ago in Dubai.

Those two accomplishments have helped her set a new career-high ranking of 14, and she’ll surely be looking for more this month in the United States.

Paolini has no problem dealing with pace, moves well, has a consistent game and can still generate power on her own with her forehand (she was clocked as having one of the fastest forehands of the entire women’s tournament in Melbourne).

With her game playing well across surfaces, she has all the tools necessary to remain patient and punish the vulnerable short balls that clear the net with far too much air under them coming from Maria’s racquet.

Tatjana Maria Recent Form

I wrote about Maria’s form this year in our Wednesday preview, a match I thought we’d find a victory in after Rus had a pair of break leads in the opening set, as well as a 4-1 double mini-break lead in the tiebreak. Alas, Maria’s defensive play and slices and lobs wore her down and her impatience grew.

Other than that, she lacks really quality wins and her losses have come in blowout fashion for the most part.

Six of her seven losses – including the loss to Paolini in Melbourne – have come by at least six games.

Her first serve is her lone weapon, but on slower courts, it feels like a decent returner should be able to neutralise that.

Jasmine Paolini vs Tatjana Maria H2H – Stat of the Match

The prior meetings between these two have seen each of them win twice. Now, only two of those matches are in any way relevant, but even still it’s 1-1.

While Paolini won the most recent of the encounters (a seven-game thumping at the Australian Open back in January), Maria’s win came a year ago at this very event. I’ll let each of you decide for yourselves whether you believe the win at this venue is more important, or whether the win that illustrates Paolini’s improved form is.

I could make a case for both and think the head-to-head analysis is a wash.

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