Nicolas Jarry vs Yibing Wu Prediction, Picks, Odds, H2H, 10/3/24

Our other look ahead preview for the Shanghai Open on the ATP schedule comes from the Nicolas Jarry vs Yibing Wu match, as the once highly-touted Chinese prospect looks to make a run on home soil and put an injury-riddled season in the rearview.

Wu’s win probability is only 46%, while Jarry is favored to win at 1.74 odds. The handicap is 1.5 games and the total games line is 23.

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Jon Reid’s Jarry vs Wu prediction is for Wu to emerge victorious.

Nicolas Jarry vs Yibing Wu Prediction: World No. 28 a Must Fade in Shanghai Second Round

• Prediction: Wu to win
• Best Odds: 2.17
• Bookmaker: Pinnacle
• Stakes: 4./10

Odds updated at 1:30 am UK Time on October 3rd, 2024.

I’m going to go ahead and trust Wu in this spot. I bet him last round personally after an incredible overreaction to a pair of retirements in previous tournaments and I think we’re seeing the same thing here.

Even if it were a concern (though the 6-3, 6-3 win last round was fairly convincing and he didn’t need a medical timeout), it’s important to note that Jarry is also in poor form. The reason? He’s had health issues to contend with himself. At worst, the physical fitness aspect of this is a wash. At best, we may have the advantage in that respect.

In terms of the matchup, we have the edge there as well, despite backing the underdog. Sure, Jarry’s serve is bigger and that’s important on quicker courts, but in terms of court speed preference, Wu will prefer the conditions more, he’s a better returner almost by default, he has plenty of weapons of his own and he is far more athletic than the Chilean.

If you’re concerned about a retirement from the home favourite, I’d suggest backing a slightly worse 2.10 price from bet365. I’m going to take the extra value though and back him at the highest price in the market and deal with the loss if he retires after the opening set is completed.

Nicolas Jarry Recent Form

He may have given Jannik Sinner a scare in Beijing by taking the opening set from the eventual runner up, but other than that, his results have been dire of late for a top-30 player with his serve and forehand combination.

He’s won just one match since making the final in Rome, against an out of form Lukas Klein in three sets.

Straightforward losses to the likes of Corentin Moutet, Denis Shapovalov, Alibek Kachmazov and Chris O’Connell were probably the best indicators that something wasn’t right physically and he’s come forward and admitted as much in recent times.

I’m not sure how knowing that he’s had physical issues and is playing in conditions that don’t suit his game anyway, one can make him the favourite, but I’ll happily oppose those who have been backing him.

Yibing Wu Recent Form

As has been the case for most of the last six or seven years, there isn’t much form to dissect for the one-time world No. 54. Sadly, that has been down to a lengthy injury history, but he did return to action this summer at a Challenger in Jinan, China, winning the whole thing and providing a glimpse of what we’ve been waiting to see consistently for the better part of a decade.

He has an excellent combination of weapons and athleticism, but could really use some better luck in the fitness department.

His first match went real well and he didn’t show many signs of the issues that caused him to retire here at a Challenger a few weeks back or in Hangzhou. If he’s able to stay as fit as he was in the opening round against a fairly physical player in Sumit Nagal, then he should absolutely be the favourite in this spot and deserves a fairly large staking.

Nicolas Jarry vs Yibing Wu H2H – Stat of the Match

This will be the first match these two have contested.

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