Jarry to Cover the Handicap: Nicolas Jarry vs Alexandre Muller Prediction, Stats, Form, H2H, May 14th

It’s another action-packed day on the ATP side of things from the Internazionali BNL d’Italia. Everyone remaining will be in action, as the round of 16 plays out in a single day with the top and bottom halves of the draw in action playing out an entire round for the first time this tournament. Jon Reid’s Jarry vs Muller prediction is for Jarry to cover the games handicap.

Let’s delve into Nicolas Jarry vs Alexandre Muller for our first men’s preview of the day. You can find more tennis previews as well, over on the expert insights page.

Muller’s win probability is 39% while Jarry is favored to win at 1.58 odds. The handicap is 2.5 games and the total games line is 22.5.

Jarry vs Muller Prediction: Muller Coming in Overvalued

• Prediction: Jarry -2.5 Games
• Best Odds: 1.94
• Bookmaker: Pinnacle
• Stakes: 5/10

Odds as at 1:00 am UK Time on May 14th, 2024. Odds may now differ.

Great win for Muller on Monday against Andrey Rublev, but this still seems to be a head-shakingly cheap price to back the Chilean.

Whether you want to look at the calibre of player, the main tour pedigree on a macro level of each, or who has the more imposing game and is most likely to control the match, I’m siding with Jarry. Even in terms of time on court, they both played three sets on Monday, with Jarry needing an extra half hour.

These odds make me believe the market is overvaluing one big win in a major way. As well as he did to come back against a struggling Rublev, let’s not forget Muller also had to come back against less impressive competition like Marton Fucsovics and even Emilio Nava in qualifying.

I’ll happily back Jarry here, especially considering he won’t be tasked with returning as big of a serve as he was against Stefano Napolitano. My Jarry vs Muller prediction is for Jarry to cover the handicap.

Nicolas Jarry Recent Form

It’s been a patchy 2024 season for the Chilean, whether it be because he’s mis-hitting a bit more or whether it’s because he’s dealing with a physical problem or two.

Despite a Miami quarterfinal appearance – and a competitive second set of said quarterfinal that he really should’ve sent three sets against Medvedev – a semifinal in Buenos Aires and now a second week appearance in Rome, his record is not nearly where it needs to be if he wants to maintain a top-25 spot in the rankings.

He does have the fact that it only takes a run of five matches where his game clicks to rack up some points going for him though. When he’s on, he’s one of the tougher players to deal with on tour, with an abundance of pace, heavy shots, and aggression to push his opponent onto the back foot.

With Roland Garros fast approaching, snapping his three-match losing skid on the dirt in the Eternal City has been big and he really should be able to extend his newfound winning streak come Tuesday.

He has the surface advantage, isn’t playing someone who was in form himself entering this event, has the much bigger game, and is well poised to control play. As long as he doesn’t beat himself, he should cover this handicap most of the time.

Thanks to that fact, this match would also fit the bill when it comes to potentially backing alternate handicaps as well. If he doesn’t lose this outright thanks to an error-strewn match, then he really should be winning in straight sets and by at least a break of serve in each. I wouldn’t hate smaller stakes on bets like Jarry’s -3, -3.5, or even -4 games at increasingly enticing odds.

Alexandre Muller Recent Form

As much of a dream run as this is for the Frenchman, it is worth remembering two things. First, he entered Rome qualifying with a 3-5 record this spring on the clay.

Second, as I alluded to above, it hasn’t been smooth sailing or dominant performances that have gotten him to this point. Had he been tearing through the draw, not dropping sets and finding upsets along the way? Then I’d understand the market’s love a bit more.

He barely got past an erratic Nava though, and though he beat Radu Albot, he had to save 14 of 16 break points faced to win that one in what was only straightforward fashion on paper. Then it was the win from behind against Fucsovics where he was the second-best player on the court for much of the match and a win against the out-of-form in 2024 Arthur Fils.

The Rublev upset brings us to this match, where he’s going to struggle to control play and is far more likely to be under pressure on serve than he is to apply it on return.

It’s been a great run (and much much-needed one) for Muller, but this feels like the end of the road for him.

Nicolas Jarry vs Alexandre Muller H2H – Stat of the Match

The only time these two met in the past, Jarry won by a four-game margin in straight sets on the clay in Aix-en-Provence at a Challenger tournament.

Needless to say, both have improved since then, but it’s Jarry who has progressed much further up the rankings, having a sensational 2023 and starting to look more like himself again now in 2024.

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