Nicolas Jarry vs Tomas Martin Etcheverry Prediction, Stats, Form, H2H, April 9th

Our previews from the ATP 1000 Rolex Monte Carlo Masters continue on Tuesday, with an all-South American tilt. It’s Nicolas Jarry vs Tomas Martin Etcheverry in what should be an enthralling battle between two powerful clay courters. Etcheverry’s win probability sits at 41.5%, while Jarry is favored to win at 1.63 odds. The handicap is two games and the total games line is 23.

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Jarry vs Martin Etcheverry Prediction: Back Bigger Serving and More In Form Clay Courter

• Predictions: Jarry to win & Jarry -2 Games 
• Best Odds: 1.62 & 1.88
• Bookmaker: Pinnacle
• Stakes: 4/10 & 2/10

Odds as at 3:00 am UK Time on April 9th, 2024. Odds may now differ.

While I think these two are both really strong players on the clay, there are a few reasons I think Jarry should be a bit more of a distinctive favorite than he is at the moment.

For starters, though these two can both dictate play, hit a heavy ball, and hit through even slower courts, Jarry is the one with the bigger weapons in both his serve and forehand.

Secondly, while I bet the Chilean last time around and he needed an unfortunate injury to Etcheverry to come away with that win via retirement, I do think the same logic applies, there’s the fact that since returning from that injury, Etcheverry hasn’t looked like he’s back at his best yet. Our Jarry vs Etcheverry prediction is for Jarry to win & cover the 2.5-game handicap.

Nicolas Jarry Recent Form

Since playing Davis Cup, Jarry’s season has been pretty decent, with a run to the final in Buenos Aires and a quarterfinal in Miami, where he really should’ve taken Daniil Medvedev to a third set with a big lead in the second set tiebreak.

Between those tournaments, he had some struggles (couldn’t back up the run in Argentina in Rio de Janeiro, losing a close one to Yannick Hanfmann and blew a huge lead in Indian Wells to the upstart Fabian Marozsan).We know his brand of tennis fairly well. It isn’t complicated, as he looks to play front-foot tennis from start to finish. It’s incredibly effective too. When he lands his first serve at a high rate, he can beat just about anyone in tennis.

Entering his best few months on the calendar, let’s see if he can get off to a hot start on the European clay court swing.

Tomas Martin Etcheverry Recent Form

Since coming back from the issue suffered in his retirement back in Buenos Aires back in February, Etcheverry has lost to a soon-to-be-retired Andy Murray in Miami and beaten Daniel Elahi Galan and Michael Mmoh on completely different clay courts in Houston.

Even those wins weren’t as impressive as one would think. He trailed 1-4 in the second set against the Colombian and threw up on court in the second set of that one and then Mmoh retired injured in the other win.

His loss to Ben Shelton was in three sets, but he was the second-best player in that one on the day.

He’s shown us before he can stick with Jarry and uses his superior athleticism and movement to help offset some of the raw power deficit, but I’m still not convinced he’s at 100% and coming over from the United States and a different style of clay court, I’m happy to back the rested up Jarry who also profiles well at this event.

Nicolas Jarry vs Tomas Martin Etcheverry H2H – Stat of the Match

These two have met five times in total and twice since the start of the 2023 season when these two both began their rise in the rankings. Unsurprisingly, all five meetings have come on clay, with Jarry taking the last two – though the last one was that injury-affected loss for the Argentine, who was the better player before being hurt.

Jarry is clear of Etcheverry in both raw and blended clay court elo, so I’m interested to see if this one plays out in his favor or more like their meeting from Buenos Aires.

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