Nicolas Jarry vs Francisco Comesana Prediction, Stats, Form, H2H, 2/19/25

Our next preview of the day covers the Nicolas Jarry vs Francisco Comesana match from the ATP Rio Open in South America.

Comesana’s win probability is only 38%, while Jarry is favoured to win at 1.54 odds. The handicap is 2.5 games and the total games line is 22.5.

Jon Reid’s Jarry vs Comesana prediction is for Jarry to cover the handicap.

Nicolas Jarry vs Francisco Comesana Prediction: Powerful Chilean to be Too Much for Comesana

• Prediction: Jarry -2.5 Games
• Best Odds: 1.93
• Bookmaker: Pinnacle
• Stakes: 3/10

Odds as at 1:30 am UK Time on February 19th, 2025. Odds may now differ.

Have to go with Jarry for a few reasons here. The first is that he’s simply a better player. More proven at this level, better statistics on the main tour on clay in the last season and has far more firepower, while not sacrificing the comfort and clay court game that also requires a heavier weight of shot.

The other is that his 1.54 price tag on the moneyline would almost always require giving up a 3-3.5 game head start, especially on clay courts and yet because of his game and his less reliable return of serve, we’re seeing a discount. My only issue with that is Comesana isn’t the type of player that can exploit the poor returning of Jarry.

He’s more of a Challenger Tour level player at the moment (though I do think he has potential to progress to the main tour in the coming years) and he’s fairly underpowered. I’ll take the big man to win by three or more games on Wednesday.

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Nicolas Jarry Recent Form

The only reason we’re getting a backable price here on Jarry is because his form hasn’t been that strong in quite some time. He had a medical condition affecting his play in the summer and fall and he’s struggled to re-find his form since then.

I’d make the case that this season has been a half decent one to this point though. Sure, losing to Diego Schwartzman last week was a poor loss, but it was the Argentine legend’s farewell tournament and his other losses prior to that were against Jiri Lehecka and Jannik Sinner. Each of those two ended up winning the tournament they defeated Jarry in.

He got past a tough lefty grinder in the opening round, and is back to hitting through his forehand, which is a good sign. It was visible that he was pushing far too many a week ago, and even Schwartzman mentioned in his post-match interview that it felt as though the tall Chilean was playing a tad nervously.

He has far too much for someone like Comesana in this matchup.

Francisco Comesana Recent Form

As much as I think Comesana has improved in the last year or so, the start to his 2025 campaign has been lacklustre in my book.

Though he was a set from a big upset in Auckland against Zizou Bergs, he hasn’t done much since then. He lost to a fellow clay specialist in Melbourne, had a few underwhelming wins against middling Challenger players in Rosario and followed that up with an early exit in Buenos Aires at the hands of Mariano Navone.

His first match this tournament was a lengthy one as well, as he only managed to convert two of 18 break point chances, which kept him on court for over three hours to get the job done.

At this point, I don’t trust him to stay in touch with a much better player and bigger server and ball striker.

Nicolas Jarry vs Francisco Comesana H2H – Stat of the Match

This is the first time these two have played professionally. That also exemplifies the fact that these two typically play at different levels within the sport.

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