Jannik Sinner vs Taylor Fritz Prediction, Stats, Form, H2H, 11/12/24

The second match from the Nitto ATP Finals features Jannik Sinner vs Taylor Fritz, as the home favourite looks to improve to 2-0 in group play and secure his spot in the semifinals.

Fritz’s win probability is only 16%, while Sinner is favoured to win at 1.15 odds. The handicap is four games and the total games line is 22.

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Jon Reid’s Sinner vs Fritz prediction is for Fritz to stay close for a while.

Jannik Sinner vs Taylor Fritz Prediction: Fritz Capable of Keeping Things Close in Early Stages

• Prediction: 1st Set Over 10.5 Games & 1st Set Over 12.5 Games
• Best Odds: 3.25 & 4.00
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stakes: 1/10 & 1/10

Odds updated at 1:30 am UK Time on November 12th, 2024. 

Perhaps the form has the market buying back in on Shapovalov, or maybe he really has found his stride. I’m still sceptical about his play, however, and I’m not sure if we take the bodies of work these guys have put forth the last year or two that we can get to a place where Shapovalov is a fairly clear favourite here.

Sure, he has firepower, but then again, so does Lehecka. I’d argue that Lehecka has played near the top of his game far more often than Shapovalov though, doesn’t suffer from the same kind of issues with double faults and has bounced back nicely from the Antwerp final and Basel opening round where he looked tired.

With two players who play aggressive, power-oriented games and one who has done so at a higher level more often and has fewer faults to his game, I think you have to back that player at underdog odds.

It may seem foolish to oppose Sinner in any capacity at the moment with how hot he’s been, but when I can get an in-form server in fairly quick conditions who is more than capable of holding his own (and his serve) against even the best of the best, I’m going to find a way to back him in some form.

For this bet, I’m going to take the high-variance route and look to maximise returns with a pair of bets that may not be likely to come in, but if Fritz is going to keep things close, it’s likely he’s going to send this match over the total. Should he do that, staying within reach early on is one of the obvious routes to doing just that. Give me the first set overs here for small stakes.

Jannik Sinner Recent Form

The world No. 1’s form is exactly as one would expect. His dominant game, imposing power and sneaky strong ability on return are tough to contend with for anyone and he’s on a roll as a result.

He’s won three of the last four tournaments he’s played with the lone loss coming in the Beijing final to fellow phenom Carlos Alcaraz in a deciding set tiebreak.

No one else seems to be able to figure him out. We have seen players with big serves able to extend sets though. Ben Shelton, Novak Djokovic and Tomas Machac have all pushed Sinner in one of the sets they’ve played in recent weeks, while Tomas Martin Etcheverry managed to get to a tiebreak and even win it.

It’s incredibly tough to beat Sinner or break his serve. If one can do their job on serve, it is possible to get to a 5-5 or 6-6 set, which is what we’re looking for here.

Taylor Fritz Recent Form

After reaching the final of his home major in New York City, it seemed as though Fritz may sleepwalk through the end of the season. He lost his first match in Tokyo, but that turned out to be to the eventual champion and then he went on to Shanghai, where he made the semifinals, only losing to Novak Djokovic and even that was a very close match.

His loss in Paris came to one of the form players of the fall in Jack Draper, who has a monster lefty game and who was only stopped late in the season by fatigue after a title run in Vienna.

Fritz then went on to beat Daniil Medvedev in straight sets in his opening group tilt, as he was able to impose himself from the baseline against the less powerful Russian.

It’s pretty clear that Fritz is just fine, both mentally and physically and though he’s still waiting for that big breakthrough in terms of a win against one of the sport’s best, he’s proven he belongs in the top 10 and can compete against just about anyone.

Jannik Sinner vs Taylor Fritz H2H – Stat of the Match

Fritz trails 2-1 but has been somewhat competitive against Sinner in the past. He beat him long before Sinner became the player he is today, but he also pushed him to three sets last season and stayed in touch at the U.S. Open in the third set this season.

He wasn’t close to making anyone believe he could pull off the upset, but he’s proven that his serve and forehand combination are enough to keep him in touch at times.

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