Jacopo Berrettini vs Maxime Chazal Prediction, Picks, Odds, H2H, 10/9/24

For our first preview of Tuesday’s action on the ATP Challenger Tour, let’s look at Jacopo Berretini vs Maxime Chazal from the Invest In Szczecin Open in Poland.

Chazal’s win probability is 45%, while Berrettini is favored to win at 1.65 odds. The handicap is 2.5 games and the total games line is 22.

Our Jacopo Berretini vs Maxime Chazal prediction is for Berrettini to win and cover the handicap.

Jacopo Berrettini vs Maxime Chazal Prediction: Back Incredibly Undervalued Italian in Polish Challenger

• Prediction: Berrettini to win & Berrettini -3 Games
• Best Odds: 1.65 & 2.10
• Bookmaker: Pinnacle
• Stakes: 5/10 & 3/10

Odds updated at 3:45 am UK Time on September 10th, 2024. 

With the last three previews all looking strong, yet not a single bet from them winning. Let’s hope if the younger of the Berrettini brothers can get out to a lead, he can close things out!

This may be one of the worst prices we’ll see this week on the Challenger Tour. Now, I’m not going to pretend that Berrettini’s game being pretty volatile isn’t somewhat of a concern, but for me, it’s the only concern. Even after factoring that into the price, I just can’t get to a point where Berrettini should be over 1.50 odds.

He is not nearly as good as his brother Matteo, but he has an explosive game himself and this season it appears as though he’s finally turned a corner. Still ranked outside the top 350, he has work to do, but he’s ranked just about as highly as he’s ever been and he’s playing strong tennis at the Challenger level.

The same can’t be said for Chazal. The New Caledonian isn’t cut out for this level and his 3-5 record is proof. First, it’s not just that he’s lost more than he’s won, it’s that just eight of his 56 professional matches have even been played at Challengers.

Then there’s the fact he hasn’t won a main draw match on the Challenger circuit (this isn’t a main draw match, but it still speaks to Chazal’s level).

Finally, the players he has beaten? Relative no names or local wild cards and he’s needed comebacks from a set down in two.

Read on for more expert insights.

Jacopo Berrettini Recent Form

It’s hard to fault Berrettini too much for some of his recent losses. Alexander Donski was a bad one, but other than that, we’re talking about players who are strong on the Challenger circuit or on the rise and in good form like the young Peruvian, Ignacio Buse.

He’s more talented, has had a better year, and won an ITF on clay just a few weeks ago. For me, backing the younger player with more talent and strong ball-striking ability is a no-brainer in this price range.

Maxime Chazal Recent Form

I won’t get too deep in the weeds with Chazal here. He doesn’t do anything that stands out, he’s not a young gun (31 years old) that is improving and could play up on his day and I don’t think there’s a big concern with Berrettini’s fitness that would make this price more reasonable.

My numbers have him winning this match well under 40% of the time and that’s an edge I’ll look to exploit with a larger stake.

Jacopo Berrettini vs Maxime Chazal H2H – Stat of the Match

This will be the first time these two have crossed paths at the professional level.

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