Iga Swiatek vs Linda Noskova BNP Paribas Warsaw Open Preview and Expert Tip: World No. 1 to be Challenged?

Iga Swiatek vs Linda Noskova (BNP Paribas Warsaw Open): Friday, July 28th

We get a void on our Wednesday bet, but it’s rather disappointing, considering Elisabetta Cocciaretty began with a 6-1 first set for our -5 games bet. She also managed to serve to cover the handicap in the third set, but failed to close the match out.

Onto Friday, where we’ll head to the hard courts of the BNP Paribas Warsaw Open and preview the match between the world’s No. 1 player, Iga Swiatek, and Czech youngster Linda Noskova.

Iga Swiatek vs Linda Noskova Expert Tip

I’ll be looking to back the underdog in this one, though not to come through as the victor per se. Noskova has the needed game to challenge Swiatek off of clay courts.

• Tip: Noskova +6.5 Games at 2.10 with Bet365, using 2/10 stakes.

Iga Swiatek Recent Form

The world is well-acquainted with the Pole’s game at this point. One of the most topspin-heavy forehand on the women’s tour, along with an underrated first serve and strong baseline solidity has made it really tough for anyone that doesn’t possess elite power and enough consistency from the baseline to beat her.

She’s also a world-class returner that applies constant pressure to her opposition’s service games and can flip control of points rather quickly with how well she can hit her forehand.

As a finalist here from last year, Swiatek is looking to take it one step further in 2023. And while she may be the overwhelming favourite to do so, it’s worth noting that she hasn’t won a tournament on hard courts since February, and has just one trophy off of clay this season.

Now, as I mentioned, it does take someone near the top of the game to beat her, but it’s certainly possible and she’s much more vulnerable on this surface than on the dirt that rewards her forehand that much more.

Linda Noskova Recent Form

Hard courts are likely a welcome sight for the young Czech, who has had each of her two best runs in 2023 on hard courts.

While both were early on in the season in Adelaide and Lyon, she seems to have worked her way back into form this week in the Polish capital. Noskova has only won consecutive matches at an event this season on hard courts (at the 250 level and above, she’s done so twice at 125K events on clay).

Like many of the emerging young players from her country, Noskova possesses a really strong backhand that can be used both in attack to win points and to keep her around in rallies.

I’m not expecting Noskova to pull off this unlikely upset, as I’m not sure she has the raw power needed to topple Swiatek, but I do think that a price of over 12.00 for someone with such talent is getting a bit carried away, which means we can see value in the other correlated markets, like the games handicap.

Iga Swiatek vs Linda Noskova – Stat of the Match

Looking for a statistic that an opponent will have the upper hand in against Swiatek is a fool’s errand much of the time.

The one thing I do think is worth looking at, however, is how many break points each of these women faces per service game. While Swiatek does lead in this department as Noskova, on hard courts this year, has faced an average of 0.68 break points per service game (not including this week’s matches), her number isn’t as dominant as one would expect.

In fact, Swiatek has faced 0.54 break points per service game on hard courts in 2023, which means it’s just about every second service game that her opponent is able to apply pressure.

That may not cost her the win, but it does bode well for those of us that are looking to oppose her winning by a considerable margin.

Odds as at 4:00 am UK Time on July 28th, 2023. Odds may now differ.

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