Iga Swiatek vs Daria Kasatkina Prediction, Picks, Odds, H2H, Stats - 11/7/24

Jessica Pegula has withdrawn from the WTA Finals so Iga Swiatek will now face alternate Daria Kasatkina in the final match of Purple Group play.

After two thumpings at the year-end championships in Saudi Arabia, Jessica Pegula removed herself from the event giving Daria Kasatkina the unenviable task of facing Iga Swiatek who needs a convincing win to wrap up group play.

Entering the final matches of Purple Group action, Swiatek enters matchday 3 in the second position with one spot remaining in the semifinal.

EJ Garr’s Alexandra Bozovic vs. Nina Vargova prediction calls for a match that goes the distance at +140 so get the tip below.

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Iga Swiatek vs Daria Kasatkina Prediction: Pegula Out, Kasatkina In

• Prediction: Match Total Under 19.5 Games
• Best Odds: +102
• Bookmaker: Unibet
• Stakes: 3/10

Odds updated at 7:00 am UK Time on November 7, 2024. 

Iga Swiatek was listed at -310 to finish off the American but that has changed with Daria Kasatkina entering the fray. As the first alternate in Riyadh, Kasatkina is ranked 9th on the WTA Tour and put together a quality 2024 campaign with six final appearances and two titles including Ningbo during the Asian swing.

This is not Asia and Iga Swiatek can see the finish line of reaching the semifinals attempting to repeat as champion of this year-end event. The line setters have made quite a statement favoring the Polska former #1 at -588 odds for Bet365 members.

The last time Kasatkina was on the court was October 25th with a straight-sets loss to Sofia Kenin in Tokyo. That is not the best momentum-builder after taking the Ningo Open title and this is a tough spot to be in.

Swiatek will be out for blood and showing the world more proof that she is one of the best players on the WTA Tour. I expect this to be a blowout for the Polska #2 and we have a decent line at +102 toward the Under 19.5 games.

If Kasatkina wins more than 3 games in any set, I will be shocked but a 6 – 3, 6 – 3 finish leaves them 18 games so look into the 18.5 at +135 for some extra value.

IGA SWIATEK RECENT FORM

Iga Swiatek banked win #60 for the third consecutive campaign with the win over Barbora Krejcikova at the WTA Finals. 

The Polka native is competing in the 70th match of the campaign and has been vocal about the length of the season. She’s not alone in expressing those feelings and we have heard many players say the same about how long the season can be on the WTA Tour.

The Summer Olympic Games added another event to the campaign in a year filled with tournaments, and Iga has spent plenty of time on the court for the last three years.

DARIA KASATKINA RECENT FORM

Daria Kasatkina will finish 2024 in the top 10 of the WTA Rankings and will be completing a fifth consecutive campaign without a losing record on any surface.

Kasatkina has claimed a pair of titles in 2024 with runs to the Eastbourne and Ningbo hardware and has made four other trips to the finals of WTA500 events or higher.

Kasatkina is 24 – 16 on hard courts this season carrying a 40 – 22 record into the WTA Finals for one match at the year-end event.

SWIATEK VS KASATKINA H2H –  STAT OF THE MATCH

In 2021, Daria Kasatkina defeated Iga Swiatek at Eastbourne to claim the only win against Iga Swiatek in six matches.

Kasatkina and Swiatek met five times in 2022 and the Polska native went 5 – 0 during those affairs including the final meetings at the WTA Finals paired in the Tracy Austin Group.

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