Hubert Hurkacz vs Tomas Martin Etcheverry Prediction, Stats, Form, H2H, May 13th

Our second ATP preview of the day at the Internazionali BNL d’Italia comes from the Hubert Hurkacz vs Tomas Martin Etcheverry match. Let’s break it down. Our Hurkacz vs Etcheverry prediction at 2.76 odds is available below!

Etcheverry’s win probability is only 36.2% while Hurkacz is favoured to win at 1.51 odds. The handicap is 2.5 games and the total games line is 23.5.

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Hurkacz vs Etcheverry Prediction: Etcheverry to Use Advantage on Clay to Pull Off Upset

• Prediction: Etcheverry to win
• Best Odds: 2.76
• Bookmaker: Pinnacle
• Stakes: 3/10

Odds as at 2:30 am UK Time on May 13th, 2024. Odds may now differ.

Though Rafael Nadal has had his moments this season, I can’t believe beating up his weak serve and exploiting his diminished movement and return game makes Hurkacz a strong clay courter – at least to the extent that he’s a sizable favorite against Etcheverry.

Since winning in Estoril (where he didn’t beat anyone of note), he’s looked fairly average on the dirt, using his serve to propel him to victory. When tasked with strong players, he’s been brushed aside by Casper Ruud and beaten by fellow big server who would prefer to play on hard courts, Taylor Fritz.

He has close wins against a struggling Daniel Altmaier, Challenger Tour level players Jan Choinski and Pablo Llamas Ruiz, underpowered Cristian Garin, and a declining Roberto Bautista Agut. 

I’m not sure why we’re seeing him being given about a 66.6% chance to advance against one of the higher quality players he’s come up against this clay season without playing in altitude or on quicker clay where his serve would be more impactful and perhaps warrant this kind of valuation. Our Hurkacz vs Etcheverry prediction is for Etcheverry to win.

Hubert Hurkacz Recent Form

As I mentioned above, though the record is strong for Hurkacz to this point on the clay, he actually hasn’t been all that impressive. Close wins against players I would’ve expected more from him against wins against declining players, and then some pretty poor losses.

Ultimately, I think a lot of his success has to do with having pretty kind draws, rather than some major step forward on the surface. He’s still better suited to quicker conditions where the serve can mask his lack of dynamism from the baseline.

I wouldn’t oppose him with just anybody. A top-30 natural clay courter with a strong serve and forehand combination of his own and more attacking spin on his shots? That’s someone I’ll gladly fade the big Pole with.

Tomas Martin Etcheverry Recent Form

It’s been an odd European clay swing for the 24-year-old native of La Plata, Argentina. His first few tournaments saw him run into Stefano Tsitsipas and Casper Ruud (the champions of the tournaments he played them in) in Monte Carlo and Barcelona. Those are excusable losses, especially the latter, which was in a semifinal and by a single break of serve.

His loss to Denis Shapovalov is tougher to forgive, but the Canadian has shown signs of brilliance in recent weeks and his explosive game can be tough to deal with in altitude.

His start this week was strong against an explosive player and tough out in Thiago Seyboth Wild, so I can’t side with those who think he’s struggling at this point.

He has an excellent clay court game and he plays an aggressive and powerful enough game to be able to rack up the holds of serve against a fairly poor returner.

Hubert Hurkacz vs Tomas Martin Etcheverry H2H – Stat of the Match

No prior matches between these two to look at.

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