Ugo Humbert vs Marcos Giron Prediction, Picks, Odds, H2H, 10/30/24

Day 3 of the Rolex Paris Masters is upon us as the matches continue thick and fast. The ATP season is just about over, but the final Masters event of the year has plenty of action left this week. For our first preview on Wednesday, let’s look more at Ugo Humbert vs Marcos Giron.

Giron’s win probability is only about 30%, while Humbert is favored to win at 1.41 odds. The handicap is 3.5 games and the total games line is 22.5.

Jon Reid’s Humbert vs Giron prediction is for Giron to keep things close in favorable conditions for both strong servers.

Ugo Humbert vs Marcos Giron Prediction: Fun Tilt Should Be Closer Than Betting Markets Imply

• Predictions: Over 22.5 Games & Giron to win
• Best Odds: 1.85 & 3.20
• Bookmaker: Unibet
• Stakes: 2/10 & 1/10

Odds updated at 12:00 am UK Time on October 30th, 2024. 

We’ve got a Frenchman involved with a typically raucous crowd. We’ve got two guys that can strike the ball well. We’ve got a competitive underdog. Even the styles can be a tad different, with Humbert liking the quicker conditions because he can keep points shorter with his flatter, lower margin-for-error baseline play.

Giron also likes the quick conditions as he can dictate play behind his serve, but he also hits with a bit more shape at times, which may help him in any rallies that do end up needing 10-12 shots.

All in all, I simply don’t have these two guys separated by nearly as much as the market does. Throw in the fact that both hold their own (literally) on serve when the conditions are quicker, and I have this far too close for a 3.20 price point on Giron. Not to mention, with the redlining and error-prone ways of both, the possibility of needing three sets is probably higher in this match than many of the others on offer. That would almost certainly bring in the over and it would also mean a close match where he have a nice higher odds wager in our pockets.

More tennis previews can be found on the expert insights page.

Ugo Humbert Recent Form

Humbert’s style leading towards fairly volatile results can be seen in his form dating back to the grass season. After making the second week of Wimbledon, the 26-year-old went five tournaments without winning more than a match.

He snapped that streak by making the final in Tokyo and has since gone another two tournaments without winning more than a single match. As noted, he plays a fairly boom-or-bust style. He can put opponents under pressure, but because he hits a flat ball and the net clearance on his groundstrokes is fairly slim, he is going to commit more unforced errors than most and that can cost him matches at this level.

He does have a matchup he’s been comfortable in here (more on that in a second), so perhaps that combined with the crowd helps him, but my numbers make him a favorite closer to the 60-65% range rather than the 70% we’re seeing at the moment.

Marcos Giron Recent Form

Similarly hot and cold in 2024, Giron has forced his way back into the top-50 in the rankings.

He played some terrific tennis in the early parts of the season on American soil before disappearing for what felt like months. Then he won a weaker 250 in Newport (the last edition of the tournament) and then struggled a bit more the rest of the American summer.

Now back in quicker conditions in Asia and Europe, Giron has reached the third round in Shanghai, semis in Antwerp and qualified for this event with a first-round win against Juncheng Shang (also a qualifier).

He’s won several times in that span as an underdog, and a few others as a slight favorite. This is when I enjoy backing unpredictable players with plenty of offense to their games. When they’re favorites, they’re not nearly as reliable. When backed at prices like 3.20, there is much less risk involved and only winning these kinds of bets 33% of the time is still a profitable endeavor.

Ugo Humbert vs Marcos Giron H2H – Stat of the Match

Humbert leads 3-0, with all matches having been played indoors. In the last three years, however, they’ve played two matches with one going three sets and their encounter at this tournament a year ago being a little more routine for the lefty.

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