Ugo Humbert vs Arthur Fils Prediction, Stats, Form, H2H, 1/16/25

We’re nearing the business end of the Australian Open as the singles draws have been whittled down to 32 players each. Let’s get our first preview of the third round going as we look at an all-French matchup in Ugo Humbert vs Arthur Fils.

Fils’ win probability is about 43%, while Humbert is favoured to win at 1.69 odds. The handicap is two games and the total games line is 40.

Jon Reid’s Humbert vs Fils prediction is for Humbert to win.

Ugo Humbert vs Arthur Fils Prediction: Big Lefty with the Matchup Advantage in All-French Battle

• Prediction: Humbert to win
• Best Odds: 1.73
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stakes: 3/10

Odds as at 1:30 am UK Time on January 16th, 2025. Odds may now differ.

Love this spot for the elder of the two Frenchmen. Humbert has fared well against Fils in the past, with his powerful left handed game really troubling the relatively weak backhand of Fils.

He shouldn’t face all that much pressure in his own service games and though he isn’t known for his consistency by any means, he’s more likely to play solid tennis from the baseline for longer stretches.

I love the matchup for him in this one, and Fils has already had some issues playing against guys of his player profile this week. Humbert presents a tougher test as a more rounded player than either of Fils’ previous opponents, so I have no issues backing him in a prolonged best-of-five set match.

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Ugo Humbert Recent Form

After what could be construed as a choke against Flavio Cobolli at the United Cup representing France, Humbert has taken care of his first two opponents in Melbourne in fairly decisive fashion.

What’s impressive about his first two wins isn’t so much the calibre of player he’s beaten (he was a huge favourite each time), but that he dealt with two players that have decent power and potential in straight sets.

Humbert can play high-risk tennis at times and doesn’t always leave himself with much margin for error, so for him to win without dropping a set to either strong server he took on is a good sign.

This is obviously a much tougher test, as he squares off with one of the best young players in the world, but that left-handed power game has given Fils absolute fits in the past. Much like himself, Fils doesn’t always play with the most rally tolerance or patience and that can be tough when taking on ball strikers like Humbert. That holds especially true when talking about the fact that he can boom first serves and crosscourt forehands over the lowest part of the net into that backhand wing and pin Fils in uncomfortable positions.

I wouldn’t hate playing the handicap here either, but 1.73 isn’t too expensive and certainly presents value, as I make this number closer to the 1.61-1.63 range.

Arthur Fils Recent Form

After a shock loss to another countryman in Alexandre Muller from a set up (he wasn’t alone in that – Muller went on to win the title, winning all five of his match from a set down) in his warmup tournament in Hong Kong, Fils has looked decent, albeit far from dominant so far at the Australian Open.

He’s played two strong servers and big hitters and has required four sets against each of them. Quentin Halys lost the third and fourth sets by a combined one break of serve margin and Otto Virtanen took the opening set and served for the second against him.

Thing is, Humbert isn’t just higher ranked and more experienced than either of those players, he also plays a big, powerful game, but is far more well-rounded and athletic (even if he employs a lower margin style himself).

I’m far from convinced by Fils’ form at the moment, particularly against big hitters and against a lefty that can exploit his weaker backhand wing.

Ugo Humbert vs Arthur Fils H2H – Stat of the Match

Humbert has dominated his younger compatriot on the court in their five matchups, winning four of them and having held a match point in the one match he did lose in Tokyo a few months ago. Normally I don’t read too much into the head-to-head series, but as I mentioned above, I do think the stylistic matchup is solidly on the lefty’s side, so I’m not at all surprised that he’s had the upper hand to this point in their matches.

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