Ugo Humbert vs Federico Coria Prediction, Stats, Form, H2H, April 8th

The first of many big clay court tennis events taking place over the next few months is underway from Monte Carlo. For one of our Monday previews, we’ll look at Humbert vs Coria prediction in a clash of styles. Coria’s win probability is only 38% while Humbert is favored to win at 1.50 odds. The handicap is three games and the total game line is 22.5.

Head over to the Expert Insights section for more previews and tips from the ATP’s Monte Carlo Rolex Masters.

Humbert vs Coria Prediction: Improving Humbert Still Too Quick Court Centric to be Big Favourite

• Prediction: Coria to win
• Best Odds: 2.63
• Bookmaker: Bet365
• Stakes: 2/10

Odds as of 12:30 am UK Time on April 8th, 2024. Odds may now differ.

Humbert did make strides in 2023 on clay. He wasn’t phenomenal at the main tour level. But, he won a pair of Challenger titles, and the two he won were both Challenger 175s. A new category from last year for the second weeks of the two-week Masters’ events that feature quasi-ATP Tour fields.

That said, he still hits a lot of flat balls, which can lead to a lot of shots finding their way into the net. When taking on someone like Coria, who makes you play a lot of balls each rally, that is an exploitable weakness.

It won’t be easy by any means for the underdog. He is underpowered and susceptible to being hit off the court if Humbert has a good day and redlines from the baseline. But, at 2.63 odds, it’s well worth the wager in the long run. Our Humbert vs Coria prediction is for Coria to win.

Ugo Humbert Recent Form

It’s been an excellent start to 2024 for the Frenchman, who has built his ranking up to a career-high of No. 14. He’s already picked up a pair of titles in Marseille and Dubai. Even though he went out in the third round of the Australian Open, he was tasked with Hubert Hurkacz and took the big-serving Pole four sets.

Humbert’s success does typically tend to be on hard courts for the most part. Other than the aforementioned Challenger runs last season, he’s struggled to find much of anything on the dirt. In the four years before 2023, he lost about twice as many matches as he won (meaning he was out in his first match of about 66% of the tournaments he entered). Even last year when it came to the main level, his data was unimpressive and he lost several times to some decent players. But, players that aren’t close to the top of the game.

He certainly has the bigger game and more natural talent than Coria, but the slower conditions of sea-level clay courts are the great equalizer for the hard-working players who rely on defensive play and hustle. This should be an excellent test for Humbert.

Federico Coria Recent Form

The opposite of Humbert, Coria is a natural clay courter, almost by necessity since he has so few weapons in his game. He doesn’t have an overpowering serve and relies mainly on spin to force opponents to return with patience. His groundstrokes aren’t going to hit anyone off the court and his return game and point construction. This, along with his ability to limit his unforced errors are incredible.

Outside of the Australian Open where first-round money is too good to pass up, Coria has played exclusively on clay so far this year. He even dropped down to the Challenger circuit when the main tour didn’t have any events on the red dirt.

After a few great weeks in South America, Coria’s play has been up and down of late – often depending on his opponents’ level.

He’s come through qualities in the last few days, beating Alexander Shevchenko and Arthur Rinderknech. These two guys that have powerful games but tend to be pretty error-prone. This worked very well in the 32-year-old’s favor.

He’ll need to replicate that level and then some to pull off the upset against Humbert, but the conditions are there for him to take advantage of.

Ugo Humbert vs Federico Coria H2H – Stat of the Match

This is the first meeting between the two. With each of them trying their best to play on different surfaces and Coria spending a lot of time on the Challenger Tour and in his native South America, the opportunities for them to clash would be limited.

The key to this match will be when Humbert shows up. Will we see the version from the main tour last season that only managed a hold plus break percentage of 100? Or can he channel the Humbert that posted a 120-hold plus break percentage in the high-level Challenger tournaments?

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