Hugo Grenier vs Jiri Vesely Prediction, Stats, Form, H2H, 10/10/24

Our second preview once again comes from the Open de Roanne in France at the ATP Challenger Tour level.

Let’s look at Hugo Grenier vs Jiri Vesely in a match that could see the underdog push the Frenchman more than the markets may expect.

Vesely’s win probability is just over 35%, while Grenier is favored to win at 1.47 odds. The handicap is 2.5 games and the total games line is 23.

Jon Reid’s Grenier vs Vesely prediction is for Vesely to pull off the upset.

Hugo Grenier vs Jiri Vesely Prediction: Big Serving Lefty Dangerous Indoors

• Prediction: Vesely to win
• Best Odds: 2.72
• Bookmaker: Pinnacle
• Stakes: 3/10

Odds updated at 12:00 am UK Time on October 10th, 2024. 

I’m actually going to go a little larger on the staking here, with Vesely likely to keep this close the vast majority of the time.

Though these guys are both strong servers, I do think that alone should allow the big Czech to keep himself within shouting distance which, on its own, would mean a sub-40% valuation would provide some value.

Throw in the fact that Grenier is a decent player in quick conditions – especially at this level – but does have a poor backhand and you can also construct a viable path to victory for the lefty with the big weapons.

Vesely is a veteran and no slouch and surely he and his team will be aware of the struggles from the backhand side of his opponent on the day. Vesely has the upside of a tour-level guy, and there’s no doubting his ability to rush his opposition with his serve and powerful groundstrokes. Send that power crosscourt with his forehand into a shaky backhand? He really shouldn’t be struggling to hold. It’s no guarantee, but it’s an obvious matchup advantage he should be able to exploit.

Grenier has had a better year and in 2024 is probably the better player in a lot of matchups he goes into on an indoor hard court. In this one though, I think he may struggle.

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Hugo Grenier Recent Form

Grenier has been okay in recent times, especially in New York City where he managed to qualify for the U.S. Open.

He has made just one quarterfinal in his last six tournaments though, and if we look at the players that have beaten him, big serves, aggressive styles, and decent baseline power are a recurring theme.

Matteo Gigante, Matteo Martineau, Titouan Droguet, and Martin Landaluce would all fit into that category of player. So too does his opponent on Thursday in Vesely.

I do think his style is more repeatable and consistent and he certainly is the player more likely to do well in a physical battle, thus him being the favorite, but in indoor conditions, I think that latter point is less relevant and the stylistic issues he’s had with players like this might be a bit much for him on the day.

Jiri Vesely Recent Form

Barely inside the top 400, people may think I’m crazy for trusting Vesely. Had this been a few months ago, I likely would also pass on a price of 2.72.

He has shown more signs of life of late though, qualifying and winning a main draw match in each of his last two hard court tournaments and losing only to a pair of guys that have previously been ranked inside the top 100 themselves in Benjamin Bonzi and Kamil Majchrzak.

Is the fact he’s only in this position thanks to receiving a lucky loser spot after losing to a no-name in qualifying? Sure.

Is that one match enough to deter me when he’s also had some decent wins (Matteo Gigante, Sasha Gueymard Wayernburg, and Gabriel Debru) in the last few weeks? Not at all.

Hugo Grenier vs Jiri Vesely H2H – Stat of the Match

I think many who agree with this selection would point to the 3-0 head-to-head record for Vesely. I do think it may speak to the matchup advantage I alluded to earlier, but I don’t want to be disingenuous. I think it’s hard to take three matches that occurred between 2019 and 2022 and act like they’re relevant today.

As much as I still like his game, Vesely has taken a step back in the last few years, while Grenier’s emergence has happened in the last few seasons and he wasn’t nearly the player he is now when those matches took place.

It’s encouraging and better than an 0-3 record, but I wouldn’t make it a fundamental pillar in one’s handicap.

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