Hubert Hurkacz vs Denis Shapovalov Prediction, Picks, Form, H2H, 5/31/24

We’re into the third round and as we progress from here, we’re likely to see more and more marquee matchups from the French Open. I’d classify Hubert Hurkacz vs Denis Shapovalov as one such matchup, with the Canadian starting to look more like the Shapovalov of old who could threaten any top player on any given day. Our Hurkacz vs Shapovalov prediction is below!

Shapovalov’s win probability checks in just under 33%, while Hurkacz is favored to win at 1.43 odds. The handicap is four games and the total games line is 39.5.

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Hurkacz vs Shapovalov Prediction: Canadian to Upset 8th Seed

• Prediction: Shapovalov to win
• Best Odds: 3.06
• Bookmaker: Pinnacle
• Stakes: 2/10

Odds as at 1:00 am UK Time on May 31st, 2024. Odds may now differ.

With his form beginning to turn and the athletic and overall talent level on his side, I am happy to take a shot at backing Shapovalov at this price.

There’s no doubt why we see the market favor Hurkacz to this extent. His game is much more stable – if also underpowered – he plays a much more sound match from a tactical perspective and, quite frankly, he’s amassed results that have seen him enter the top 10 in the world rankings.

That said, he’s on his worst surface, he is less likely to dictate in baseline exchanges between these two, and his path to the third round this week has been far from convincing.

I have Shapovalov well below the 3.00 odds threshold, so getting a number like 3.05 is too good of a proposition to pass up. Our Hurkacz vs Shapovalov prediction is for Shapovalov to win.

Hubert Hurkacz Recent Form

The big Pole has put together his best year of clay tennis in terms of record this spring. That said, his title in Estoril saw an incredibly easy path relative to most ATP tournaments, he would’ve been out early in Rome had Sebastian Baez not choked away a dominant lead (he’s done so at the French Open already too) and his wins at Roland Garros have come against Challenger Tour hard courter Shintaro Mochizuki and American Brandon Nakashima.

He needed five sets to beat the former and four to beat the latter.

Other than his serve (which is somewhat less effective on the slower clay surface), there’s very little to like about his game. He’s consistent from the baseline and his backhand is decent, but he struggles to control points at times and it’s why his resume lacks many dominant, lopsided wins.

This is a big step up in competition. He should be steadier of the two, but betting on him to stay solid and Shapovalov to trip up along the way 66% of the time is a big ask.

Denis Shapovalov Recent Form

Still just 11-13 on the season, the 25-year-old from just north of Canada’s largest city does seem to be turning the corner.

Since a pair of bad losses in Houston and Bucharest, Shapovalov is now 5-3 on European red clay, with his losses coming to the clay specialist and upstart Luciano Darderi (in a third set tiebreak), the red-hot Alexander Zverev in a close contest and Tallon Griekspoor – a match he was up in by a set and a break and that was postponed and finished the next day.

This week has seen him eviscerate the underpowered Luca van Assche in front of a hostile home crowd and then beat a similarly mercurial, but talented player in Frances Tiafoe in four sets. The impressive part is that outside of one set lost, he’s managed to find at least a break of serve in every set.

That likely won’t happen against someone with Hurkacz’s serve, but being on point on return won’t hurt, and if he can find one, Hurkacz is a poor returner himself and Shapovalov has enough on his serves and first forehands to rack up service holds himself.

Hurkacz vs Shapovalov H2H – Stat of the Match

Hurkacz leads the series 4-1, with all five previous encounters taking place on hard courts. Only one has happened since 2021 though, and that match went five sets last year at the Australian Open.

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