Rinky Hijikata vs Damir Dzumhur Prediction, Picks, Odds, H2H, 18/9/24

The other preview from the ATP events this week also comes from the Hangzhou Open. Let’s take a look at Rinky Hijikata vs Damir Dzumhur.

Dzumhur’s win probability is 43.5%, with Hijikata entering as the favorite at 1.62 odds. The handicap is 2.5 games and the total games line is 21.5.

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Our Hijikata vs Dzumhur prediction is for Dzumhur to win.

Rinky Hijikata vs Damir Dzumhur Prediction: Surging Dzumhur to Continue Re-Establishing Himself as Main Tour Pro

• Prediction: Over 21.5 Games & Dzumhur to win
• Best Odds: 1.93 & 2.30
• Bookmaker: Pinnacle & bet365
• Stakes: 2/10 & 2/10

Odds updated at 2:00 am UK Time on September 18th, 2024. 

Normally, I enjoy backing his work ethic and game that plays much bigger than it is thanks to the court speed in these conditions. He was an underdog in a lot of matches where he was always going to be competitive.

That time appears to have passed though. Now faced with an all-courter as an opponent, who is in form and is back in the top 100, I’m not huge on Hijikata being a strong favorite. I have this matchup as a very close one, and with Dzumhur so good at moving along the baseline, it feels like a match that could see some rather long battles from the back of the court, with Hijikata not really having the raw power to hit through the defenses of someone like Dzumhur.

Rinky Hijikata Recent Form

Though his form since reaching the quarterfinals at Queen’s Club as a qualifier hasn’t been great, it should be said that Hijikata has been playing on the main tour, where the competition is much tougher.

It’s hard to hold losses against the likes of Grigor Dimitrov (U.S. Open and Montreal), Daniil Medvedev (the Olympics), Ben Shelton (Mallorca), or red-hot players at the time he played them (Flavio Cobolli and David Goffin) against him.

I like his game on quicker courts. The serve plays up a bit and he doesn’t look underpowered to a fault. That said, there’s a reason he needs quick conditions for success more often than not. He doesn’t possess the most power and when coming up against someone else that plays a grinding style from the baseline and moves well around the court, it’s hard to see where he creates the required separation in terms of talent to be a justified 1.62 favorite.

Damir Dzumhur Recent Form

Dzumhur’s form has been going in a more positive direction, but the vast majority of his wins this season have come down on the Challenger circuit.

Now, he does have five titles and an additional three semis at that level.

Most of those accolades had been racked up on clay, but he is an all-court player and he showed off his chops by making a semifinal in Belgium early on in the season on quick, indoor hard courts, while also winning his most recent tournament on hard courts in Istanbul as well. The latter saw him win four of his five matches as an underdog and another as a pick ‘em.

That signifies to me that at the moment, he’s undervalued on this surface. I’m happy to back him here at a nice underdog price.

Rinky Hijikata vs Damir Dzumhur H2H – Stat of the Match

The lone meeting between Hijikata and Dzumhur came back in Australian Open qualifying nearly three years ago. It was a Dzumhur win, but that was long before Hijikata was the player he is now and it also ended via retirement, with the Australian being injured.

I like Dzumhur in this match, but I wouldn’t put too much importance on that prior meeting, if any.

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