Yannick Hanfmann vs Marc Andrea Huesler Prediction, Expert Picks, Odds, H2H, 4/18/24

Despite the weather delays from the BMW Open, I’m looking to that tournament once again on Thursday for one of the previews. Jon Reid’s Hanfmann vs Andrea Huesler prediction seems to provide a great opportunity to capitalize on a fairly nice price, so let’s dig in!

Huesler’s win probability is only 42% while Hanfmann is favored to win at 1.64 odds. The handicap is two games and the total games line is 22.5.

Our Hanfmann vs Huesler prediction is for Hanfmann to win & cover the handicap.

Hanfmann vs Andrea Huesler Prediction: Hanfmann Too Well Rounded for Swiss Lefty

• Prediction: Hanfmann to win & Hanfmann -2.5 Games
• Best Odds: 1.64 & 2.01
• Bookmaker: Pinnacle
• Stakes: 5/10 & 3/10

Odds as of 1:00 am UK Time on April 18th, 2024. Odds may now differ.

As poor as the results have been of late, I do feel like the rationale behind a lot of the plays has been sound and I’m going to keep trudging along.

Hanfmann is the more natural clay courter, can match the easy service winners of Huesler, has played at the main tour level far more often, and is the superior baseliner.

I understand that the market is hesitant to make him a 3.5-4 game favorite against a strong server in a few hundred meters of altitude. But, it’s not the kind of attitude that produces quick, easy holds and the temperatures are so low and the clay so wet that it should slow conditions down which favors the better baseliners.

The pedigree is also on Hanfmann’s side. Because as poor as much as he’s struggled to string together wins this year, he’s been playing at the main tour level for quite some time now. Whereas, Huesler has been a Challenger Tour player – and not a great one – for a long time now.

More tennis previews and tips are available now on the expert insights page.

Yannick Hanfmann Recent Form

Hard to say 2024 has been a success for Hanfmann, but these are the kinds of tournaments he needs to make count. He’s lost more matches than he’s won, but as I mentioned, those have all come at the ATP Tour level except the Challenger 175 (which plays like a 250) in Phoenix.

Some of his losses on clay this year have come to the upstart Luciano Darderi (who has vaulted himself inside the top 65 already this season), Mariano Navone (another player who has become a mainstay on clay on the main tour), Arthur Fils (another top-50 player with a title on clay already as a teenager) and Jaume Munar in a tight third set where he played some strong tennis, but was just unable to defeat a veteran player on the clay circuit.

He’s made mention of this tournament on home soil is one of his favorites. His serve plays well and he hits a heavy enough ball to penetrate the slower conditions. Last year he lost by a break in each set to Holger Rune, one of the top-10 clay courters in the world. And, he’s coming off a strong win in the third set against another up-and-comer in Alexander Shevchenko, who has burst into the top-75 in the rankings as well.

Other than perhaps raw power on the first serve, I have a tough time seeing what exactly Huesler does better than Hanfmann in this matchup.

Marc Andrea Huesler Recent Form

The last few weeks have been impressive for Huesler, but other than that, it hasn’t been a 2024 campaign to write home about to this point.

Last week in Madrid at a Challenger was his best result of the year. That came in warmer (thus livelier) conditions and at higher altitudes, where that serve was much more relevant. The time he spent on clay before that week? Also at altitude in Mexico, but there he struggled and lost to the likes of Aidan Mayo and Bernard Tomic.

Even this week, his three wins have come against aging Challenger players or low-level locals. There’s so little to like in his form, despite recent wins that I’m surprised the market is so willing to overlook the talent gap to the extent it has.

The serve needs to click for him to stay competitive in my book and even his lefty forehand may not be the most effective weapon, considering how solid the Hanfmann can be. Huesler also plays with a lot of flat hitting and struggles to build points when taking his foot off the gas. Doesn’t seem like the ideal match for him.

Yannick Hanfmann vs Marc Andrea Huesler H2H – Stat of the Match

We’ve yet to see these two play. The statistical side of things loves Hanfmann as well. He possesses an elo advantage of over 180 points whether you’re looking at the raw or blended clay court elos.

That would imply a likelihood of nearly 75% to win the match. Yet the market has him around 61%. I don’t think that elo ratings are the be-all, end-all for handicapping this sport, but I think that kind of differential does help illustrate my point of this price being incorrect. And that’s without looking at the matchup advantages the German has on his side as well (or the home crowd).

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