Tallon Griekspoor vs Yannick Hanfmann Prediction, Stats, Form, H2H, 4/16/25

Our second preview of the day also comes from the ATP’s 500 BMW Open in Munich. Let’s delve into the Tallon Griekspoor vs Yannick Hanfmann match.

Hanfmann’s win probability is only 28.5%, while Griekspoor is favoured to win at 1.34 odds. The handicap is 3.5 games and the total games line is 22.5.

For more daily tennis tips, visit the bettingexpert community, but if you want more expert tips from Jon Reid, visit our Expert Insights section.

Jon Reid’s Griekspoor vs Hanfmann prediction is for Hanfmann to keep this match close.

Tallon Griekspoor vs Yannick Hanfmann Prediction: Altitude Clay Specialist to Keep In Form Griekspoor Close

• Predictions: 1st Set Over 10.5 Games, 1st Set Over 12.5 Games, Over 22.5 Games & Hanfmann to win
• Best Odds: 3.25, 4.60, 1.98 & 3.50
• Bookmakers: bet365, Unibet, Unibet & Pinnacle
• Stakes: 1/10, 1/10, 2/10 & 1/10

Odds as at 3:15 am UK Time on April 16th, 2025. Odds may now differ.

This type of bet almost seems too good to be true. By that I don’t mean it’s a “trap” or whatever nonsensical verbiage some in the betting sphere use, but more along the lines of all the indicators would point to a closer match than the odds imply on the moneyline and the handicap and total numbers would indicate.

Usually things like altitude, strong servers, poor returners and the like are priced into the market and aren’t usually actionable pieces of information in identifying value. Yet I think in this instance, it truly is as simple as Hanfmann enjoying altitude conditions, Munich being warmer this year than it typically is (we’ve seen snow in the past, slowing conditions down and offsetting the elevation) and Griekspoor being a fairly poor returner when tasked with playing someone with a strong first serve.

I think this year’s previews have proven I typically side with Griekspoor when he’s an underdog. He’s talented, aggressive and has major weapons from the baseline as well as his first serve. Problem is, the same logic that believes he should keep things close more often than not as an underdog also hampers him when he’s a large favourite.

He isn’t equipped to consistently pressure his opponents’ service games and as a result it’s tough to see him winning by margin. When that’s the case, it’s hard to give him this much credit in the betting markets.

Tallon Griekspoor Recent Form

After a mediocre start to the season, I don’t think it’s a stretch to say that Griekspoor has been very strong in recent months.

Semifinalist in Dubai, quarterfinalist in Indian Wells and finalist in Marrakech. Not too shabby for the Dutchman who is now back into the world’s top-40.

The caveat? A lot of close wins along the way. Even on the clay, we’ve seen him play plenty of tiebreaks and matches that require over 23 games to finish. Now that’s just a trend. Trends without context and understanding as to why they exist are useless.

Thing is, we know that Griekspoor can struggle at times to post a strong break percentage. We know altitude makes serves harder to return. We also know that those conditions and a strong server as his opponent are present in this matchup.

It feels to me like this is the perfect chance to back a nicely-priced underdog against one of our typically favourite players.

Yannick Hanfmann Recent Form

Now, we’ve gone over all the reasons Hanfmann can trouble Griekspoor. So why then is he priced the way he is? The bookmakers don’t make mistakes like this, and if they do, sharp bettors eat those mistakes up and adjust the market pretty quickly.

In this case, it all has to come down to Hanfmann’s play of late. He has been dreadful in 2025. He has exactly two main draw wins all season. The first was a big upset in the opening round this week. The other was in Santiago.

The Chilean capital is another spot where elevation plays a role, oddly enough. This is also a guy who has had some of his best career results in Gstaad and Kitzbuhel in the past. Those tournaments are played on clay. They’re also – you guessed it – at altitude.

The serve is strong, the spin and weight of shot is there, the comfort on the surface is present and his opponent has a vulnerability to exploit. Checks all the boxes for an underdog bet.

Tallon Griekspoor vs Yannick Hanfmann H2H – Stat of the Match

These two have played three times in the past, with Hanfmann leading 2-1. Hanfmann’s two wins were also in clay court matches. That sounds promising, but the problem is, they were Challenger matches that took place in 2018 and 2021.

Unfortunately, they’re not all that relevant. If Hanfmann can channel those matches and use those memories to gain an edge, I’ll take it! Relying on that information to make this bet would be irresponsible though.

Safer Gambling

At bettingexpert, we always take a safe approach to gambling. We’ll never bet more than we can afford or chase losses. For more advice, head to our Safer Gambling hub.