Tallon Griekspoor vs Jesper de Jong Prediction, Stats, Form, H2H, 1/31/25
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Weâre back to the Open Occitanie ATP 250 tournament for our second preview of the day and final preview of the week (and month). Letâs look at our second
De Jongâs win probability is 35%, while Griekspoor is favoured to win at 1.47 odds. The handicap is 2.5 games and the total games line is 22.5.
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Jon Reidâs Griekspoor vs de Jong prediction is for Griekspoor to cover the handicap.
Tallon Griekspoor vs Jesper de Jong Prediction: Trust Griekspoor Again in Second All-Dutch Matchup of the Week
- Prediction: Griekspoor -3 Games
- Best Odds: 2.02
- Bookmaker: Pinnacle
- Stakes: 3/10
Odds as at 7:45 am UK Time on January 31st, 2025. Odds may now differ.
Weâll go over the form of both these guys in a minute, but this handicap being as low as 2.5 games, with the -3 being over even money, Iâm not sure I can pass at this point. Griekspoor was undervalued in his last all-Dutch encounter, and Iâm pretty sure weâre seeing a similar situation here.
Yes, de Jong has looked decent this week, but there is some context to those wins that Iâm going to address in a moment. On the flip side, some may not like the fact that Griekspoor needed a close third set to beat an ageing Richard Gasquet, but again, thereâs more to that story.
Fact is, Griekspoor is the better hard court player, and even in slower to medium conditions, has more power to hit through his opponents than someone like de Jong. One is a tour level regular and the other is a Challenger Tour player who has potential to disrupt draws on clay on the main circuit, but isnât a mainstay just yet.
From game, to surface, to pedigree, I favour Griekspoor in this matchup.
Tallon Griekspoor Recent Form
After a really poor start to his season, Griekspoor has looked better this week. He did blow it serving for the opening set against Botic van de Zandschulp in the opening round, but recovered quickly and managed to win in straight sets and cover the handicap.
The second round was more tricky, but itâs worth noting that Gasquet was playing Montpellier for the final time at a tournament heâs had a lot of success at. Not the greatest player to need a 7-5 third set win against, but when looking at the bigger picture, itâs a forgivable close win.
As for this match, he may not be playing the sloppiness of van de Zandschulp, but he once again has the much bigger game and much better pedigree against his compatriot.
Other than trying to prolong rallies and hoping for errors and the typical Griekspoor nerves, there isnât likely a lot de Jong can do in my books.
Jesper de Jong Recent Form
The younger of the two pros from the Netherlands hadnât won a match prior to this week in 2025, starting out 0-3, with two losses as a huge favourite and another where the markets had given him about a 50% chance to win (and he could barely hold serve).
Yet this week, heâs won both his matches against ATP Tour calibre players. How on earth does that happen?
Well, Quentin Halys retired two games into the second set in the first round, while Flavio Cobolli has been dealing with some physical issues early on in this season that seemed to play a part in that match. I actually believed Cobolli might have been better than the market believed and boy was I wrong.
De Jong has decent chops on clay, with the ability to push some main tour guys that may not be as used to or as comfortable on the red stuff, but on hard courts, the pedigree and comfort simply arenât there.
Certainly not enough to make him a 2.5 game underdog against someone with far more experience, better weapons and who plays at a higher level than he does on a consistent basis.
Tallon Griekspoor vs Jesper de Jong H2H â Stat of the Match
This is the first time the two countrymen will have met at the professional level.
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