Tallon Griekspoor vs Pablo Carreno Busta Prediction, Stats, Form, H2H, 4/3/25

We begin our Thursday previews in Marrakech as we look at Tallon Griekspoor vs Pablo Carreno for a spot in the quarterfinals.

Carreno Busta’s win probability is nearing 50%, while Griekspoor is favoured to win at 1.83 odds. The handicap is 0.5 games and the total games line is 22.5.

Jon Reid’s Griekspoor vs Carreno Busta prediction is for Griekspoor to win.

Tallon Griekspoor vs Pablo Carreno Busta Prediction

• Prediction: Griekspoor to win
• Best Odds: 1.83
• Bookmaker: Pinnacle
• Stakes: 3/10

Odds as at 1:00 am UK Time on April 3rd, 2025. Odds may now differ.

I don’t have this price quite as close as the betting markets do, so I’ll go ahead and take a shot with the favourite in this matchup.

Griekspoor hasn’t had the best time on clay courts since becoming a mainstay on the ATP’s top tour, but some of his draws have been unkind and what makes it even more odd is it was a season of dominant success on the dirt down on the Challenger circuit that helped propel him to the main tour.

I think Marrakech was probably the right choice for the Dutchman, with the conditions not nearly as slow as Marrakech, the altitude helping his serve and not having to contend with as many fellow strong servers as the Houston event would have.

He’s the top seed here and though he’s yet to make a deep run at this level on the surface, he’s probably playing his most competitive level either and he’s got a very manageable field to work through.

That includes the current version of Carreno Busta, who is not nearly the player he once was. His ability to play attacking tennis on clay has fallen off a cliff and he does project to be on the back foot a lot in this one. Perhaps his solidity can still net him a few points, but his form in recent weeks hasn’t really provided much inspiration.

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Tallon Griekspoor Recent Form

I’m excited to see how Griekspoor fares this clay season. Between the 2021 and 2022 seasons, Griekspoor racked up over 50 wins on the lower tours. He’s obviously found it difficult to translate that success, but I think this is a fairly nice start to his clay season. Carreno Busta may have been a fearsome second round draw, but his propensity to miss on the backhand side and the loss of power in his game has made him a fairly tame opponent.

Now, Griekspoor will still have to avoid the head-shakingly poor errors that do plague him at times, seeing as the Spaniard is still super solid and will make you earn points and stay patient, but it’s about the only thing that really concerns me from a Griekspoor vantage point.

I don’t love Griekspoor on the dirt, but I do think that at this price point he’s being disrespected a bit by the market that clearly values Carreno Busta as if this match was taking place a few years ago.

Pablo Carreno Busta Recent Form

The return to play for Carreno Busta has been a rocky one, with a few good weeks at the Challenger level on hard courts in Spain sandwiched by a lot of first and second round exits.

It’s not even the fact that he’s lost to some of the players he has, it’s that he’s looked so overpowered by players that I would consider having mediocre games with big weapons. Quentin Halys, Aleksandar Kovacevic and at this stage of his career, Marin Cilic all fit that description.

Griekspoor does as well, but instead of being a middle-of-the-road kind of guy, he’s closer to a top-25 player.

Now, I bring this up because I think it’s fairly compatible with the problem I troubleshooted in Carreno Busta’s game. The lack of offensive ability at this stage means that he finds it tougher to rack up easier holds of serve, even against those that aren’t great on return. That means that he puts a lot of pressure on himself to fend off break points and find breaks of serve himself against tough servers when he is broken.

From what I’ve observed this season when watching him play, unless he’s going up against guys outside of the top-100 in the world, he’s almost always chasing the match.

Tallon Griekspoor vs Pablo Carreno Busta H2H – Stat of the Match

Carreno Busta won the lone match between these two in five sets back at the 2022 Australian Open. Obviously, the two have gone different directions in terms of career trajectories since then, so I’m fine with backing the world No. 37 in this one.

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