David Goffin vs James Duckworth Prediction, Picks, Odds, H2H, 10/2/24

Our other lookahead preview from the ATP’s Shanghai Open covers the David Goffin vs James Duckworth match.

Duckworth’s win probability is in the 35% range, with Goffin entering as the favorite at 1.48 odds. The handicap is three games and the total games line is 22.5.

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Our Goffin vs Duckworth prediction is for Duckworth to keep it close and win more often than the markets suggest.

David Goffin vs James Duckworth Prediction: Aussie Quick Court Specialist Live to Pull Off the Upset

• Predictions: Over 22.5 Games & Duckworth to win
• Best Odds: 1.98 & 2.82
• Bookmaker: Unibet & Pinnacle
• Stakes: 3/10 & 2/10

The underdog selections in the last few days haven’t gone according to plan. However, I still can’t back away from betting on guys like Duckworth who have no business being in the 35% range to win when they’re at home in these conditions and playing a veteran like Goffin who had a nice run this past summer but hasn’t played since that third-round loss at the U.S. Open a month ago.

To be fair, Duckworth hasn’t played since then either, but as someone who has played pretty well in quicker, lower-bouncing conditions this year and historically, I give him a very good chance to keep this one close and even pull off the upset.

He’s got a decent serve, hits a flat ball, and prefers these kinds of courts. You could make the case that Goffin feels the same way, but he’s far from dominant enough and doesn’t possess those overpowering weapons I’d want to see to make him this much of a favorite.

Give me the Aussie to send this match over the total games number and to win the match.

David Goffin Recent Form

As I mentioned, there isn’t much recent form to go on for either of these guys, but Goffin did have a pretty strong summer. He struggled early in Winston Salem, before trouncing a series of opponents and losing in the semis, and ran out of gas in New York just before reaching the second week.

When it comes to his play this year on faster courts, he was mediocre in Atlanta and Washington and though he won a grass court Challenger, he was out of Wimbledon in qualifying and then again in the opening round as a lucky loser.

He once had a very well-rounded game, both able to generate pace from the baseline, while being solid as well. The offensive capabilities have dwindled a bit, and I’m not sold on two or three good tournaments this summer meriting this kind of valuation.

James Duckworth Recent Form

Duckworth also went out in the final round of qualifying in London and lost as a lucky loser in the opening round, but his first test in the main draw was much tougher and he acquitted himself well, taking Alex de Minaur to a trio of tiebreaks.

He also qualified and won at least one match in the main draw in both Stuttgart and Halle in fast conditions, losing only to massive servers in Matteo Berrettini and Hubert Hurkacz.

His performances in the Asian Challenger swing earlier in the year were also decent, though I’m sure he would’ve liked at least one title out of his travels.

The game is clearly undervalued on the regular in quicker conditions and I’m happy to back him in a few capacities in his clash with the Belgian.

David Goffin vs James Duckworth H2H – Stat of the Match

The only meeting between these two saw Duckworth win comfortably. That is misleading though, with the match taking place over three years ago, during an awkward season thanks to COVID and in Miami, where the courts hadn’t been sped up as much as they are now.

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