Alexis Galarneau vs Andrea Vavassori Prediction, Stats, Form, H2H, 2/13/25

Our first preview for Thursday’s action comes from the ATP Challenger Tour in Bahrain. Let’s look at Alexis Galarneau vs Andrea Vavassori.

Vavassori’s win probability is about 50%, while Galarneau is favoured to win at 1.90 odds. The handicap is 0.5 games and the total games line is 22.5.

Jon Reid’s Galarneau vs Vavassori prediction is for Galarneau to win.

Alexis Galarneau vs Andrea Vavassori Prediction: 

• Prediction: Galarneau to win
• Best Odds: 1.90
• Bookmaker: Pinnacle
• Stakes: 2/10

Odds as at 3:00 am UK Time on February 13th, 2025. Odds may now differ.

I’ve been one of the people claiming Vavassori has actually been undervalued in the last two weeks since he started playing again. He’d played sparingly at the end of the 2024 season due to injury and he just got back on court in a professional capacity last week in Rotterdam, where he put on a decent display.

There are a few reasons I want to oppose him here though. The first is that I think we’re seeing the market try and catch up to his play and go a little too far.

The second is the matchup in hot and humid conditions may not suit his more serve-oriented, net rushing kind of game. That is particularly true against a strong returner and baseliner that can find the passing angles to trouble him like Galarneau.

Finally, we have a player coming back from a fairly long break that is talented, but as the wins stack up, we have to be cognizant that he’s still a 29-year-old that’s going on his third match in as many days and seventh since the start of the month with travel from Europe to the Middle East thrown in. As much as I do tend to like Vavassori’s game, the concern about playing this much in his return to the professional circuit does have me a little hesitant regarding his chances.

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Alexis Galarneau Recent Form

The Canadian hasn’t really racked up a lot of quality wins this year, but he’s certainly establishing himself as a mainstay on the ATP’s second circuit.

This is already his third quarterfinal of the season after a pair of semifinal runs in Portugal late last month.

He should make that a trifecta before the end of February, as the ever-consistent baseliner takes on a more powerful, but possibly tiring Vavassori. Finding a few good returns to keep his opponent from trying to rush the net will be key, as will his passing shots should the Italian attempt to make his way forward mid-rally.

In the humid conditions of New Delhi, I like the more physically fit player that has more match fitness under his belt in the last few months to emerge victorious.

Andrea Vavassori Recent Form

I’d argue that it’s been a decent start to 2025 for Vavassori. He was solid in qualifying for the ATP 500 in Rotterdam a week ago and this week he’s won a pair of three setters to reach this point.

The first round was a bit disappointing, as he needed three sets to beat someone he should’ve sent packing with more ease. The second match though was against a tricky veteran in Mikhail Kukushkin that he deserves at least some credit for.

Now, Kukushkin prefers conditions a bit quicker than are typically found in Manama, but I think Vavassori was still in tough regardless.

This is a totally different opponent though that should make things tougher, use the slower conditions to drag Vavassori into longer rallies and possibly outlast him physically.

Alexis Galarneau vs Andrea Vavassori H2H – Stat of the Match

This is the first meeting between Galarneau Vavassori.

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