Marton Fucsovics vs Marin Cilic Prediction, Stats, Form, H2H, 3/27/25

For our other preview we move from the Challenger in Napoli, to the one in Girona, as we have Marton Fucsovics vs Marin Cilic in another match that one wouldn’t be surprised to see on the main tour either.

Cilic’s win probability is 43.5%, while Fucsovics is favoured to win at 1.64 odds. The handicap is 2.5 games and the total games line is 22.

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Jon Reid’s Fucsovics vs Cilic prediction is for Fucsovics to win.

Marton Fucsovics vs Marin Cilic Prediction: Trust Better Mover in Battle of Veterans

• Predictions: Fucsovics to win & Fucsovics -2 Games
• Best Odds: 1.68 & 1.95
• Bookmaker: Pinnacle
• Stakes: 3/10 & 2/10

Odds as at 3:00 am UK Time on March 27th, 2025. Odds may now differ.

From one match featuring two players normally found playing ATP Tour tournaments to another. I’m not one to normally back Fucsovics on clay, but I think there are a few things here that make this proposition enticing.

The first is the movement in price since the market opened. Other bettors clearly trust the veteran much more than I do. We’ve seen Fucsovics go from 66.7% to win the match all the way down to 61%. That may not seem like a lot in other industries, but in the betting world, that is a significant shift.

The second is that Cilic himself doesn’t love clay. He hasn’t played a whole lot on it in recent years, his power doesn’t work as well and his lack of movement – especially as he gets older – doesn’t help. The fact is I think Fucsovics goes from being the guy who may like clay less than his opponent to the one that is more comfortable in a match against Cilic.

Finally, it seems as though the market saw Cilic beat a clay natural in the opening round and seemed to take some form of reassurance from that. Here’s the thing though: Carlos Taberner (the man he beat in the opening round of play) may have had a few days off, but he played a lot of tennis last week. The Spaniard spent over 14 hours on court in his five wins en route to the title (including a 3h38m marathon against Cilic’s opponent on Thursday, Fucsovics).

With that context applied, I’m not sure how much credit I’m willing to give the veteran for that victory.

Marton Fucsovics Recent Form

After a slow start to the season, Fucsovics was able to use a 2-0 showing at the Davis Cup for his native Hungary to kick start his campaign. A lot of his success has come at the Challenger level, but the Manama title he won was a Challenger 125, he made the quarters of another decent Challenger a week ago, only losing to the eventual champion in the absolute war of a match mentioned above and now he’s started out well at another Challenger 100 this week.

I think the form is more reliable than Cilic’s at this point and he’s played and won far more on the surface in the last few years than his counterpart.

I’d prefer his game on a quicker court where he’d find easier holds, but that’s the advantage of playing Cilic – the Croatian isn’t the best returner, so instead of quicker courts providing some protection for the 33-year-old’s serve, it’s his opponent’s less-than-stellar returning that does that job.

Marin Cilic Recent Form

The current world No. 143 didn’t begin his season until after Australia during the Middle East swing, where he played a respectable match against Carlos Alcaraz in Doha and then stunned Alex de Minaur in three sets, followed that up with another underdog triumph against Alexei Popyrin and then pushed Felix Auger Aliassime all the way to a third set as well.

Thing is, there aren’t many players out there you’ll find that are going to have as large a delta between their hard court and clay court performances as the 36-year-old Cilic.

Prior to that win against a surely-fatigued Taberner, Cilic hadn’t won a match on the dirt since 2022, even losing his opening match on the surface to Daniel Merida Aguilar last week in Murcia.

With Fucsovics’ win being efficient to reach this stage and Cilic’s lack of clay court prowess in recent times, I’m happy to take him on here.

Marton Fucsovics vs Marin Cilic H2H – Stat of the Match

Cilic has won all three previous meetings, though none have taken place in years. He also won the lone clay contest between them, battling to a four set win in Paris from a set down all the way back in 2022. Obviously Cilic is a few years older now and the fact that he hasn’t played or won any meaningful matches makes that an even more distant memory.

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