Joao Fonseca vs Learner Tien Prediction, Stats, Form, H2H, 12/19/24

It’s once again the last match of the day that should prove to be the most entertaining. Let’s take a look at Joao Fonseca vs Learner Tien to round out our coverage from the ATP NextGen Finals on Thursday.

Tien’s win probability is a very respectable 47.5%, while Fonseca is favoured to win at 1.73 odds. The handicap is 0.5 games and the total games line is 24.5.

Jon Reid’s Fonseca vs Tien prediction is for Fonseca to win.

Joao Fonseca vs Learner Tien Prediction: Tien Overvaluation At All Time High After Surprising Win

• Prediction: Fonseca to win & Fonseca -0.5 Games
• Best Odds: 1.73 & 1.80
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stakes: 3/10 & 2/10

Odds as at 11:30 pm UK Time on December 18th, 2024. Odds may now differ.

I’m going right back to trusting Fonseca in this spot on Thursday. I’m a big proponent of his game, and as volatile as it can be, he’s just so much more talented at this stage than his underpowered counterpart in this one.

What’s more, he showed on Wednesday that though he can lose the handle a bit, he has the ability to play some decent tennis on return, having played the big-hitting Arthur Fils very tough.

Tien may have managed to pull off a big upset of his own against Jakub Mensik, but when the Czech was in the zone, he looked like he was in big trouble. When he was slap happy on return, he was handing Tien easy, cheap holds of serve – something Tien shouldn’t be finding consistently against anyone at this level.

Fonseca has the huge power edge, can finish points and most importantly, should be able to exploit the lesser serve of Tien more than Mensik.

Keep in mind, Tien did need to win all three of his sets in tiebreaks and was very close to losing the first and final sets in those tiebreaks. Finally, against a player with far more power on serve, he was well behind in the first serve department and was fortunate that Mensik couldn’t manage to win even 45% of return points against his second deliveries. Fonseca can also produce those lopsided first serve numbers here and should be far more proficient on return.

That would spell trouble for Tien.

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Joao Fonseca Recent Form

I wrote up the Fonseca match yesterday against a fellow fiery young gun in Fils and I’m happy that he was able to cash the over, while also managing to easily bring in the handicap and even the moneyline.

That’s who Fonseca is. He doesn’t quite have the experience or reps to be someone who has the most repeatable or consistent power, but he can absolutely ball with ATP Tour calibre players with his firepower.

That’s why I have to have him as a much larger favourite in this spot. Yes, there is the risk that Tien and his pinpoint accuracy and ability to extend rallies forces Fonseca into playing impatient tennis and making mistakes. That possibility is greatly outweighed by the fact that when both guys are playing a level of tennis that is anywhere near their best, Fonseca should run away with this match.

I consider Tien fortunate to have won his opener. I think Fonseca looked much more competitive point-to-point against an even tougher opponent and managed to pull through himself.

Until this price becomes much more expensive, there is value to exploit in backing the 18-year-old.

Learner Tien Recent Form

I’m not huge on the Tien form this season, despite the eye-popping record he’s managed to amass.

A lot of American Challenger Tour events with much weaker fields later on in the season, a 20-0 ITF Tour record beating up players who can’t keep the ball in play or hit through him and recent losses to the likes of Chris Eubanks and Aidan McHugh aren’t inspiring me much either.

Throw in several wins where he failed to cover the handicap and a win against Mensik in which most metrics would point to him being the second best player on the court, and you have the perfect recipe for an overvaluation against an opponent with more weapons and who has put himself in tougher fields throughout the season.

Joao Fonseca vs Learner Tien H2H – Stat of the Match

These two young players from different continents have yet to meet, with Tien spending the vast majority of his time playing on the ITF Tour or on home soil in the United States racking up victories in less-than-stellar Challenger fields.

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