Joao Fonseca vs Eliot Spizzirri Prediction, Picks, Odds, H2H, August 22nd

For our other U.S. Open qualifying preview, we’ll look at Joao Fonseca vs Eliot Spizzirri – a matchup of two newcomers to the tour vying for a spot in a grand slam main draw.

Spizzirri’s win probability comes in at 38%, while Fonseca is favoured to win at 1.51 odds. The handicap is 2.5 games and the total games line is 23.

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Our Fonseca vs Spizzirri prediction is for Fonseca to win.

Joao Fonseca vs Eliot Spizzirri Prediction: Comfortable Win for the Brazilian 

• Predictions: Fonseca -2.5 Games & Fonseca -3 Games
• Best Odds: 1.91 & 2.01
• Bookmaker: bet365 & Pinnacle
• Stakes: 3/10 & 3/10

Odds updated at 5:00 am UK Time on August 22nd, 2024. 

As much as I think the new kid on the block and one of the most hyped prospects should be overvalued by the market more often than not, I’ve found myself backing him to win several times in the last six weeks or so.

I didn’t see any value on him in the opening two rounds, but a few weeks ago, I was on him in the majority of his matches at the Lexington Challenger. Considering he won the event and dominated most matches, that was a fruitful endeavour for yours truly.

Now I feel like I’m being rewarded for my patience by not jumping the gun to back him in New York. He did end up winning both matches and covering the handicap in at least one of them easily, but I’m content with having passed.

Now against an overrated collegiate player, I have to get involved. I make him a 3.5 game favourite, and I could make the case that it should be an expensive 3.5 game handicap.

Alas, I’ll happily take -2.5 games and then sell a half game to get -3 games at a nice price over evens.

Joao Fonseca Recent Form

Since hitting the hard courts for the summer swing in North America, Fonseca has to be happy with his results. His only two losses have come against big serving, tall, flatter strikers of the ball in Gabriel Diallo and Billy Harris.

The former is developing a reputation for being a really strong Challenger player and the latter is having a career year and is at his best on hard and grass courts.

Other than those two, Fonseca has won eight matches, dropping just one set in along the way (in the first round of qualifying when he dropped the opener against Lukas Klein in what might have been the toughest first round match in either qualifying draw).

Though Spizzirri had some great service numbers in his last match against Joris de Loore, I don’t see nearly enough to his game to make me think that he can stick with the Brazilian prodigy from the baseline, nor can he rush him into making mistakes – one of the effective ways to trouble the teen.

I’m going to go large on a handicap that I think is at least one game off, perhaps 1.5 games, and we’re talking about pretty important numbers when it comes to tennis betting.

Eliot Spizzirri Recent Form

A win here and Spizzirri should find himself in the world’s top-300, but to do that, he’ll have to go through one of the best teenage prospects in the sport.

Spizzirri was a standout in the NCAA, but I’m not exactly enthralled with his game. I think he does a decent job defending and hits on the run fairly well, but I don’t believe in his attacking prowess nearly as much as the betting markets – which is likely why my numbers come up a full game off of where the number is at the moment.

Much like another hyped American who is becoming a darling of bettors in Learner Tien, Spizzirri went on a lengthy win streak down on the ITF Tour to bolster his hard court record, before jumping up to the Challenger Tour and reaching the semifinal in Winnipeg.

Since then, his only good wins were here in the qualifying draw and the opening match was against an out of form and rusty Gregoire Barrere, with the second coming against a deeply disappointing de Loore.

Perhaps his serve is playing up this week, but he’ll be playing the most talented player yet and the best returner he’s come up against as well.

Joao Fonseca vs Eliot Spizzirri H2H – Stat of the Match

With Spizzirri having been in college and Fonseca being so young, it’s no shock that these two have yet to cross paths.

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