Joao Fonseca vs Tomas Martin Etcheverry Prediction, Stats, Form, H2H, 2/11/25

Our second preview comes from what I consider to be the match of the day on the ATP circuit on Tuesday. Let’s take a look at Joao Fonseca vs Tomas Martin Etcheverry.

Etcheverry’s win probability is a tad under 50%, while Fonseca is the slight favourite to win at 1.83 odds. The handicap is one game and the total games line is 22.5.

Jon Reid’s Fonseca vs Etcheverry prediction is for Fonseca to win.

Joao Fonseca vs Tomas Martin Etcheverry Prediction: Phenom Already Playing at Top Level and Should Be Priced Up as Such

• Prediction: Fonseca to win
• Best Odds: 1.83
• Bookmaker: Pinnacle
• Stakes: 2/10

Odds as at 6:30 am UK Time on February 11th, 2025. Odds may now differ.

I don’t think quality of competition or physicality are concerns anymore with Fonseca. Even last season as he began playing more regularly on the professional tours, there were sustainability issues with his power and some questions about how ready he was to make the jump to being a more established player on the ATP’s main circuit.

The fact he’s played just two tournaments this year, racked up solid results relative to the level of competition he’s been pitted against along the way and has ensured time to train and recuperate between tournaments tells me it’s not just his game that is going to take him to the top, but a team that is staying patient and making the right choices.

It’s no wonder the game has improved leaps and bounds in the span of a year. The most talked about prospect in tennis is on the verge of a run to the top-25 or top-50 and I’m happy to back him at a pretty nice price while he’s still in the process of making that jump.

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Joao Fonseca Recent Form

Whoever ends up drawing Fonseca in the early rounds for the next little while as he builds his ranking to reflect his talent is going to absolutely hate the bad luck they’ve been dealt.

In this case it’s the eighth seeded Etcheverry that has to deal with one of the sport’s proteges.

Fonseca already has one of the most vicious forehands in the sport and he’s going to rise up the rankings in a big way this season. The weapons are there, the ability to deal with longer rallies is there and as he proved down under, despite having no prior best of five set experience, that he can hang for longer periods of time against some of the better guys on tour.

After breezing through his warm up tournament (a Challenger in new Caledonia) without dropping a set, he went on to qualify for the Australian Open with ease (again, without dropping a set), before sending one of the better hard court players in the men’s game packing in straight sets.

The loss to Lorenzo Sonego was a reminder to slow down the hype train a bit, but the fact is, he’s scheduling well, not overplaying and he’s started to really put the pieces together to become an elite tennis player.

We are going to see odds on him to win matches in the 1.50-1.60 range – even against strong competition – within a few months and this part of the season may be one of the last times we see him underpriced to this extent for years.

Tomas Martin Etcheverry Recent Form

Etcheverry has actually had a pretty poor start to the year and is probably pretty happy to be back on the red clay and on home soil.

He’s had a few wins that you’d expect him to come out on top of (Nicolai Budkov Kjaer, Billy Harris, Tristan Schoolkate and an unfit Flavio Cobolli), but the two really strong players he’s taken on have handled him with relative ease and even some of those wins were a bit closer than they should’ve been.

I’m not huge on Etcheverry’s return game and though he’s got a very solid serve and his forehand will be even tougher to deal with in these conditions, but he’s going to be at a slight disadvantage in the firepower department and I don’t think the other parts of his game are good enough to make up for that.

Fonseca is a tough customer to deal with and with time off and back in a best of three tournament, he could be a real threat to make a run this week.

Joao Fonseca vs Tomas Martin Etcheverry H2H – Stat of the Match

There are no prior matches to look at between these two guys.

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