Arthur Fils vs Dusan Lajovic Prediction, Expert Picks, H2H, 4/19/24

The final preview of the day comes from the Barcelona Open, the ATP’s biggest tournament of the week from Spain. It’s our Fils vs Lajovic prediction in a battle of youth and experience as well as power against clay court craft.

Lajovic’s win probability is 42% while Fils is favored to win at 1.65 odds. The handicap is 2.5 games and the total games line is 22.5.

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Fils vs Lajovic Prediction: Fils to Keep Rolling in Barcelona

• Prediction: Fils to win & Fils -2.5 Games
• Best Odds: 1.65 & 1.96
• Bookmaker: Pinnacle
• Stakes: 4/10 & 2/10

Odds as at 2:00 am UK Time on April 19th, 2024. Odds may now differ.

Have to side with the young Frenchmen here at a price that appears to be heavily influenced by the last time these two met in South America.

I’m happy to back the power and all-court talent of Fils, especially when he just beat a consistent player who looked to draw errors from him and was in better form than Lajovic and is a much better opponent. Our Fils vs Lajovic prediction is for Fils to win & cover -2.5 games.

Arthur Fils Recent Form

After a pair of nice runs to start his season, the teenager who burst onto the scene in 2023 really struggled to find his game. He tried heading to South America for the early-season clay court swing and it backfired in a big way.

Now onto the main part of the clay schedule, Fils is starting to find some form again, and he’s had the support of some raucous crowds. Last week in Monte Carlo, he crushed Yannick Hanfmann before being sent packing by a really good performance from a talented Lorenzo Musetti (and he almost came back to win that second set too). Now in Barcelona, the support hasn’t died down, with a pack of loud French supporters in the stands for both of his wins against Daniel Altmaier and Alex de Minaur.

Having beaten two guys who can prolong points, one bigger server and more natural clay courter, and one elite defender who could elicit errors from him on his day, Fils has seen a variety of player styles this week and emerged from each match victorious.

Now he plays a strong clay courter, who likes to hit with width and construct points, but I’m not sure he has anything but experience on the surface that should trouble the Frenchman.

If he can avoid overhitting against some of the heavier topspin shots coming from his opponent, Fils should have the upper hand and hit his way through Lajovic.

Dusan Lajovic Recent Form

Barcelona has also served as a sort of turnaround tournament for the veteran as well.

Outside of the Golden Swing, Lajovic had just three wins all year, and 30% of his wins in 2024 have come this week in Spain. Beating a washed-up Diego Schwartzman means very little these days and I’ve written a few times about still not being sold on Ugo Humbert’s clay court chops.

As for his win on Thursday, it took over 2.5 hours and Alejandro Davidovich Fokina is another guy who hasn’t been in form, winning just one match since Dubai.

He beat Fils back in February, but the price movement since that match seems a tad excessive. Plus, I still believe Fils is the far superior player and is playing much better tennis than he did back on that poor Golden Swing.

Arthur Fils vs Dusan Lajovic H2H – Stat of the Match

That match wasn’t the only one these two have played though. Fils won the other clay match between them last year in Hamburg, also on clay and by a four-game margin (albeit a close 7-5, 7-5 win).

A few months ago, Fils was a much larger favorite. I’m not sure one win should move the line as much as it has, especially when it only leveled the head-to-head in the series at 1-1. With the match on Fils’ racquet more often than not, I’ll side with the more talented of the two.

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