Arthur Fils vs Marcos Giron Prediction, Stats, Form, H2H, 3/11/25

We march on at the BNP Paribas Open as we look at Arthur Fils vs Marcos Giron match from the ATP’s singles draw.

Giron’s win probability is only 42%, while Fils is favoured to win at 1.65 odds. The handicap is two games and the total games line is 22.5.

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Jon Reid’s Fils vs Giron prediction is for Fils to beat Giron.

Arthur Fils vs Marcos Giron Prediction: Oppose Giron After Fortunate Run

• Prediction: Fils to win & Fils -3 Games
• Best Odds: 1.65 & 2.21
• Bookmaker: Pinnacle
• Stakes: 4/10 & 2/10

Odds as at 12:15 am UK Time on March 11th, 2025. Odds may now differ.

It’s been a much needed week for the Frenchman after potential physical issues and some error prone play really hurt his performances in Rotterdam and Dubai. He first crushed a promising young Canadian, Gabriel Diallo, before managing to eliminate a very tough slow court player in Lorenzo Musetti.

Though his errors can be an issue, there are a few reasons to like Fils in this contest. For starters, whatever Giron does well, Fils does that much better. Where Fils can be error prone, so too is Giron. Finally, when it comes to slower hard courts, the younger of these two is better off, with more power to hit through the slower courts and more time afforded to him by the conditions.

There’s also the matter of Giron getting here despite not playing all that well, which we’ll go over in a minute.

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Arthur Fils Recent Form

After retiring in the third round in Melbourne against his countryman Ugo Humbert, Fils had struggled to get back to his best. He had a nice win in the Davis Cup against a clay player and other than that, he hadn’t had a convincing victory until the aforementioned win against Diallo.

Still, he has looked much better this week and last round showcased his ability to overcome some poor stretches of play against a very solid player comfortable in the conditions to find a way through.

Now he has the advantage in most categories I believe are important in handicapping a tennis match and do believe that though he can overhit his way out of a tournament in any given match, his implied win percentage is still too low in this spot.

Marcos Giron Recent Form

Three wins later and Giron finds himself in the final 16 of a slow court Masters tournament. Problem is, he hasn’t exactly been convincing on his way to the fourth round. He snuck through in straight sets as a large favourite in the opening round, had to save several set points in the opening set of the second round in a three-set win and then came from a set down saving an unsustainable 14 of 15 break points faced last time out.

I have watched the better part of all three matches and he was the second best player on the court in two of them and barely better than his opponent in the first.

He’s now taking on another big ball striker that is probably more well rounded than the likes of Nikoloz Basilashvili and Alexei Popyrin, while also being in conditions that don’t suit him all that well (as is evidenced by him facing over 25 break points in his last two encounters).

Perhaps the Cinderella run continues and the fortunate turns of events continue to be on his side. I’m not in the business of betting based on luck and assumptions though, so I’ll happily oppose him.

Arthur Fils vs Marcos Giron H2H – Stat of the Match

This is the first time these two have met. Conditions should favour Fils, but Giron has been a tough out this week with his play on big points.

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