Arthur Fils vs Roberto Carballes Baena Prediction, Picks, Odds, H2H, 10/3/24

We’ll continue on with our previews from the ATP’s Shanghai Open. Let’s look ahead to the Arthur Fils vs Roberto Carballes Baena second-round encounter.

Carballes Baena’s likelihood of winning is only 30%, while Fils is favored to win at 1.35 odds. The handicap is 3.5 games and the total games line is 22.

Jon Reid’s FIls vs Carballes Baena prediction is for Fils to get the job done.

Arthur Fils vs Roberto Carballes Baena Prediction: Fils to Back Up Title With At Least One Shanghai Win

• Prediction: Fils -3.5 Games & Fils -4 Games
• Best Odds: 1.83 & 2.08
• Bookmaker: Pinnacle
• Stakes: 2/10 & 2/10

Odds updated at 1:00 am UK Time on October 3rd, 2024. 

The market is looking to fade Fils off of a title, but this doesn’t come close to the criteria I have to oppose someone over fatigue. This match takes place days after he lifted the trophy in Tokyo. Secondly, the travel spot should not pose much of a problem. Finally – and this is the key – he’s not playing against someone that is on his preferred surface.

Yet the market has bet the Spaniard in the early stages nonetheless, and I think this has gotten to the point that we can back the young gun, despite his long week.

He’s got much more firepower, should be able to keep points nice and short against someone that will look to prolong rallies against his volatile game thanks to the quicker conditions and he’s a much more natural hardcourt player.

The form speaks for itself and it’s not like Carballes Baena was all that convincing in reaching the second round either.

More tennis previews can be found on the expert insights page.

Arthur Fils Recent Form

Fils is in fine form once again after a topsy-turvy summer. He lost a few close matches at the Davis Cup, but won his third at that event and then went on to beat five strong servers and hitters in Tokyo to claim the title.

Now, he did play several three-setters and a lot of tight sets, but having a few days off should help offset the time on-court concerns.

As for his game, he’s got an explosive, aggressive, and powerful game. It’s why he’s already claimed multiple ATP Tour titles this season, yet also bowed out of events fairly early.

I’m sure he’ll welcome someone who he may have a better time against on return in Carballes Baena after playing Taylor Fritz, Matteo Berrettini, Ben Shelton, Holger Rune, and Ugo Humbert in his last five contests.

Roberto Carballes Baena Recent Form

I think this Asian swing has to be considered a success for Carballes Baena. Winning a few matches in Hangzhou is probably more than he expected when he landed in China and he was a set away from qualifying in Beijing before bowing out in the opening round as a lucky loser against Karen Khachanov.

Much like that first-round match, where we opposed him with one of our previews against the handicap, I think he’s being slightly overvalued here. Not because the market believes in his abilities, but because they’re skeptical about his opponent.

I’m not at that point and think he should be closer to a four-game underdog in the 1.90-1.95 range. The 3.5 games were unplayable on Fils at market open and have shifted a fair amount. Perhaps he does cover, but I’m not sold on him in this type of matchup yet.

Arthur Fils vs Roberto Carballes Baena H2H – Stat of the Match

These two have no prior matches played against one another at the professional level.

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