Felix Auger Aliassime vs Flavio Cobolli Prediction, Picks, Odds, H2H, August 7th

Another pair of previews today from the ATP draw from the National Bank Open. Let’s look first at a home favorite in Felix Auger Aliassime vs Flavio Cobolli. Our Auger Aliassime vs Cobolli prediction is for Auger Aliassime to cover the handicap.

Cobolli’s win probability is just 33%, while Auger Aliassime is favored to win at 1.40 odds. The handicap is 3.5 games and the total games line is 22.5.

Felix Auger Aliassime vs Flavio Cobolli Prediction: Oppose Young Italian Off a Long Week in Washington

• Prediction: Auger Aliassime -3.5 Games
• Best Odds: 2.04
• Bookmaker: Unibet
• Stakes: 3/10

Odds updated at 2:00 am UK Time on August 7th, 2024. 

The foundation of this bet has to lie within the fact that Cobolli played over 11 hours of tennis last week en route to the final in Washington. He also spoke about not having anything left after his loss in the final to Sebastian Korda.

Being tasked with facing Auger Aliassime right off the bat in Montreal is what I’d call a bad draw. Perhaps a few days off is all the Italian needs, but I’m not expecting him to come up with the goods again on Wednesday.

More tennis previews are up on the expert insights page.

Felix Auger Aliassime Recent Form

Playing in front of a home crowd, Auger Aliassime will be looking to build off a strong week in Paris, where he narrowly missed out on a medal representing Team Canada.

The travel spot isn’t the greatest, but he’s had plenty of time to fly back and get acclimated to the hard courts. He’s the more natural hard courter of the two, has the bigger serve that should lead to more cheap points, and has a strong combination of power and athleticism.

He’s also shored up his backhand a lot in recent times, though if Cobolli plays a lot of inside-out forehands to that side, he may end up hitting a fair number of errors.

Let’s see if he can wear down Cobolli and take advantage of potentially tired legs.

Flavio Cobolli Recent Form

Cobolli’s good form of late may be the reason to oppose him in this match.

As I alluded to earlier, he had a long week in Washington. Not just because he made the final, but because of how long some of the matches were. Even his lone match of the five he played that ended in straight sets featured a tiebreak. Thanks to how the draw was structured, he had to play five matches in six days, with just one day off.

There was also the fact that he had to save four match points consecutively against Alejandro Davidovich Fokina, won two matches in deciding set tiebreaks by the slimmest of margins, totally ran out of energy in the final and mentioned after both the semifinal and final that he was having to manage his energy as the fatigue was setting in.

There’s no denying how talented the 22-year-old is. He can crush from the forehand wing, but this appears to be a tough spot for him situationally.

Felix Auger Aliassime vs Flavio Cobolli H2H – Stat of the Match

Cobolli has the lone win head-to-head, beating Auger Aliassime in Acapulco in slower conditions. Auger Aliassime did take the first set 6-2 before unraveling and I think the circumstances with how much Cobolli had to play last week and how he looked in his last match give the Canadian the upper hand in this one.

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