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Horse Racing Federico Agustin Gomez vs Matias Soto Prediction, Stats, Form, H2H, 19/11/24
Our second preview of the week comes from the Sao Paulo Open on the ATP Challenger Tour. Let’s look at Federico Agustin Gomez vs Matias Soto.
Soto’s win probability is only about 40%, while Gomez is favoured to win at 1.56 odds. The handicap is 2.5 games and the total games line is 22.5.
For more daily tennis tips, visit the bettingexpert community, but if you want more expert tips from Jon Reid, visit our Expert Insights section.
Jon Reid’s Agustin Gomez vs Soto prediction is for Gomez to cover the handicap.
Adrian Andreev vs Nick Hardt Prediction: Rusty Clay Courter Undervalued Against Struggling Opposition
- Prediction:Gomez -2.5 Games & Gomez -3 Games
- Best Odds: 1.92 & 2.12
- Bookmaker: Pinnacle
- Stakes: 3/10 & 2/10
Odds as at 2:45 am UK Time on November 19th, 2024. Odds may now differ.
It’s rare to find a bet this late in the year on the lower circuit where there’s enough liquidity and value to make a larger wager. This is one such case. I’m not sure what the market likes about the Chilean here, other than the fact that he does tend to play decently when at altitude.
He’s by no means a hard courter (more on that in a second), he doesn’t have many weapons from the baseline, and other than a decent first serve – which is still second best in this matchup by a fair margin – his game is far too topspin-heavy, which isn’t exactly going to do much for him on a hard court.
I’ll back the booming serve and stronger game of Gomez, who has been much better this season and who has the game that’s well suited to transitioning to a hard surface.
Federico Agustin Gomez Recent Form
It’s been a breakthrough season for the 27-year-old from just west of Buenos Aires. He’s shot up to the top-140 in the world, and he’s used a big, powerful, aggressive game to do it.
Earlier in the season, I personally looked at him and his style as one of the most rare types of players you could find: a clay court servebot. His return game seemed really poor, but he held serve so consistently at the Challenger level on a surface that doesn’t tend to reward big serves nearly as much.
Fast forward a few months and he looks like a much more well-rounded player. Unsurprisingly, this has translated to some success in recent times on hard courts as well. The serve looks even more imposing there, the big groundstrokes play up even more and as a result, he lost twice in the summer to the red-hot Mattia Bellucci (who just broke into the top-100 for the first time this week, himself) and then he beat several strong hard court players in China at this level and on the main tour, eventually losing to veteran Mikhail Kukushkin (tricky, flat baller who is a hard court specialist) and Alexander Bublik (a top-50 player).
I’m not sure why there’s a hint of doubt in this pricing from the market, but I’m happy to get involved backing Gomez in a match that I make a 3.5-4 game handicap.
Matias Soto Recent Form
Soto’s record looks half decent for a guy from South America that is clearly a clay court specialist, but don’t be fooled, every single one of his victories on hard courts this year, whether outdoors or indoors, has come in Challenger qualifying or on the lower ITF Tour.
He has not yet managed to get over the line against anyone in a main draw at this level and he’s been handed some lopsided defeats by players much less talented and in lesser form this season than his Argentine counterpart in this one.
As I mentioned earlier, the style from the baseline isn’t conducive to success on this surface and with more spin and less pace on his groundstrokes, he’s likely to leave the ball sitting up in the optimal hitting zone for Gomez, making it even more likely his opponent will be able to blast through him.
The path to victory or at least covering this miniscule handicap? Serve extremely well and hope for an error-filled match from Gomez. I can’t think of much else in the matchup that favours him.
Federico Agustin Gomez vs Matias Soto H2H – Stat of the Match
This is the first time these two have met in a professional match.
NOVEMBER 18-24 IS SAFER GAMBLING WEEK 2024
November 18-24 marks an important date in the betting calendar. Safer Gambling Week is a significant industry-wide event that aims to shed more light on responsible betting. For more information and advice, head to the bettingexpert Safer Gambling hub or our brief explainer below:
