Jacob Fearnley vs Arthur Cazaux Prediction, Stats, Form, H2H, 1/14/25

The second round of the Australian Open brings us 32 matches from the men’s draw to break down. Let’s look at Jacob Fearnley vs Arthur Cazaux to get things going on Tuesday.

Cazaux’s win probability is a respectable 46.5% for an underdog, with Fearnely priced up as the 1.77-odds favourite. The handicap is one game and the total games line is 38.

Jon Reid’s Fearnley vs Cazaux prediction is for Fearnley to win.

Jacob Fearnley vs Arthur Cazaux Prediction: Fearnley Ready to Announce His Presence Down Under

• Prediction: Fearnley to win
• Best Odds: 1.80
• Bookmaker: Unibet
• Stakes: 3/10

Odds as at 3:45 am UK Time on January 14th, 2025. Odds may now differ.

There are many times that a player goes on a tear in terms of form at the Challenger Tour and the market is ready to anoint them far too early. This usually happens with players that are underpowered and rack up their wins in weaker fields seen in North America, South American or Asia (think American Learner Tien).

Then there are those that have a nice serve, big forehand and go on deep runs in more challenging tournaments that may very well be ready for the main tour. Enter Fearnley.

After a collegiate career, Fearnley hit the pro circuit last summer and took it by storm, winning tournaments left and right from June onwards.

I’m surprised with how much the market liked him in the latter stages of 2024 that he’s not a larger favourite here. Cazaux may have the big hitting and weapons and enjoys the quicker conditions in Australia, but he’s also far more erratic and his last match also saw him lose to a clay court player from a set and break up because he couldn’t get a handle on his groundstrokes.

This is a much sterner test, even if Fearnley isn’t ranked nearly as highly as Sebastian Baez.

With Cazaux off a five set match and not possessing the kind of controlled aggression of his British counterpart, I’ll be backing Fearnley here at anything over 1.70.

More tennis previews can be found on the expert insights page.

Jacob Fearnley Recent Form

Not only did Fearnley rack up a quarter of Challenger titles in 2024, but he won a main draw match at Wimbledon and won a pair of qualifying matches and then another in the main table in Stockholm in the fall.

Signs have been there for Fearnley being a tour-ready prospect, but the accumulation of tennis late in the season did seem to make it tough on him to break through.

This season he looked real strong in Canberra at a Challenger event to tune up for his Australian Open main draw debut and looked pretty good after a sluggish start, beating a pair of strong servers in tough conditions on return and then only losing to Joao Fonseca – a phenom who was given over 40% in the markets to beat a top-15 player in the world in the opening round.

Throw in a win against Nick Kyrgios – albeit one far from his best and potentially banged up – and I think Fearnley has shown that he’s had plenty of preparation to play someone with a big serve and decent weapons from the baseline.

Arthur Cazaux Recent Form

I want to say the offseason did the 22-year-old a world of good, but this year hasn’t gone all that well. He lost his season opener to a veteran who is better on clay and has been terrible in the last eight months, split his two matches in Adelaide, where he looked to pick up an upset against Felix Auger Aliassime, but lost a close third set (and picked up a knock in his back along the way) and then barely won against one of the worst hard court players in the top-100.

Going back to 2024, Cazaux had a few physical issues, but also went five months from March to August winning just one match. Some form returned at the end of the year, but it’s been a battle both physically and in refining his game.

Until he develops that control to go with his aggressive, powerful shots, he’s going to continue to struggle to consistently win matches at the top level. He’ll play close matches, sure. His talent will see him redline for stretches, but in the long run, he’ll struggle with sustaining success.

Jacob Fearnley vs Arthur Cazaux H2H – Stat of the Match

This is the first time we’ve seen the two young guns square off. It’s an interesting one because while Cazaux has been a fixture on the main circuit, he hasn’t had much success. Fearnley, on the other hand, has been mainly at the lower levels of the sport, but has had a lot of success.

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